IPO · resolved market
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a03107f7ca576da11692abcf083f0c066073de36cf7384bcaf04ed49f58aece
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1237…0bc5backed Yes | 3c | 3,900$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 4c | 2,009$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…704cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,730$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…b6fbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,436$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…828fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,412$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ed…d236backed Yes | 3c | 1,389$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2404…938cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,306$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…67dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,288$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef8…f510backed Yes | 3c | 1,288$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,266$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 2c | 1,262$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f5…bf7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,230$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f8…eeddbacked Yes | 3c | 1,207$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736b…8739backed Yes | 3c | 1,176$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c93…9562backed Yes | 3c | 1,120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 775$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 772.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 428.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 5c | 384.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 5c | 307.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…d648backed Yes | 4c | 273.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 5c | 254.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…c9edbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…830ebacked Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…1279backed Yes | 7c | 223.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 178.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be $400B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $300B and $350B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be less than $200B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.