Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ffe0c2a01ca112ea32a64c2ac7f3c0d0e6cd348edfcdddd7b711e86a3d26ca1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 43c | 815.59$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.55 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 500$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 32c | 489.48$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 75c | 402.38$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 58c | 301.12$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.81 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 52c | 265.18$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 229$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 45c | 206.52$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 175.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 44c | 163.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 41c | 161.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 154.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…541dbacked Yes | 65c | 154$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 137.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 127.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 75c | 123$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 122.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…6477backed Yes | 63c | 113.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 75c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 44c | 97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 38c | 95.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 83.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked No | 37c | 81.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 34c | 77.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 41c | 75.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 56c | 72.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 71.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 43c | 66.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 62.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 45c | 62.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 27c | 54.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ac…ef43backed No | 30c | 54.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 42c | 52.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 63c | 49.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…8291backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 41c | 45.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…5900backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 41c | 40.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…1211backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 39.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 29c | 39.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 76c | 39.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 51c | 39.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 80c | 37.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 42c | 34.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 72c | 34.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed Yes | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 61c | 32.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 61c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 68c | 29.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 68c | 29.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 64c | 29.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…5712backed Yes | 53c | 28.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 49c | 27.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a9…78ebbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 73c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 55c | 26.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 53c | 25.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 75c | 25.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 44c | 25.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 47c | 24.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…3cd1backed Yes | 65c | 23.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 47c | 22.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0331…f5c7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 70c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…02a0backed Yes | 70c | 17.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 65c | 17.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccf…f061backed Yes | 73c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 67c | 15.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 75c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 39°C or higher on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.