Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x338c18b2c5ba40786bf735c18ce2b08e491f678499da6e43c1d6d043343db818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 1,628$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 23c | 856.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 433.2$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 416.37$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 340.14$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 26c | 328.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes | 61c | 302.12$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.64 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 24c | 203.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 48c | 198.81$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.91 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 193.08$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 8c | 177.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 68c | 165.31$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 17c | 162.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 160.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 153.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 148.62$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 141$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 9c | 138.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 123.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 120.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 16c | 114$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 113.11$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 51c | 109.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 40c | 109.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…9599backed Yes | 13c | 107.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 79c | 104$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 22c | 98.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 93.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 85.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b9…ed06backed Yes | 51c | 76.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 63.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 32c | 62.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 58c | 58.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…9ec9backed Yes | 40c | 57.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 50c | 51.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 35.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 42c | 35.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 51c | 31.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 27.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 64c | 27.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…b3d9backed Yes | 53c | 21.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 77c | 16.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 39°C or higher on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.