Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdaf0aa3f81b4032c6e48769c9382dce3a64a38881c77bb5fcf33be613a8e59d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 66c | 501.23$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.68 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 50c | 354.23$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.83 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 338.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 41c | 331.94$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 34c | 317.94$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 51c | 286.02$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.25 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 50c | 249.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked No | 44c | 232.54$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 190.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 52c | 170.27$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 167.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 50c | 137.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 132.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 50c | 110.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 48c | 103.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 33c | 96.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 39c | 95.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 91.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 90.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 33c | 76.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 68.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 46c | 66.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 63.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 33c | 56.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 49c | 49.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked No | 48c | 46.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 51c | 40.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 40.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 50c | 39.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 52c | 37.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 36.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 32c | 34.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 33.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 31.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes | 68c | 27.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 64c | 27.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 66c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 46c | 24.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e1…7ea2backed Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 55c | 23.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 54c | 18.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…e8b9backed Yes | 80c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…9502backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.