World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab5f7fd411b91b4196817c3ab85feeda14e854fc72ee651da79b2af42f6d5b87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 37c | 1,876$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 53c | 1,086$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.82 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 689.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 626.41$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.45 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 51c | 613.4$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.64 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 554.36$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.67 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 528.57$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.54 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 19c | 524.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 517.65$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 504.54$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.97 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 400.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 46c | 377$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.85 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 366.15$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.73 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 359.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 358$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.93 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 288.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 31c | 278.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 48c | 268.76$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 35c | 258.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 60c | 257.25$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed No | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…be1ebacked Yes | 33c | 229.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 194.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 193.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 52c | 191.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 190.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 184.77$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 14c | 172.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 165$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 44c | 162.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 157$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 43c | 154.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 12c | 152.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 27c | 149.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 23c | 128$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 77c | 125.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 120.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 64c | 115.74$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 27c | 115.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 110.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 10c | 110.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 27c | 110.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…ce8bbacked Yes | 15c | 105.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 58c | 98.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 91.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 90.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 90.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 46c | 87.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 54c | 86.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 36c | 82.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 19c | 80.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 55c | 80.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 34c | 79.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 34c | 74.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 14c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 52c | 72.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…2ef7backed Yes | 58c | 68.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 52c | 67.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 66.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 48c | 59.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…fcbdbacked Yes | 51c | 57.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…d45fbacked No | 47c | 55.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 54.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 53.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…1bf2backed Yes | 52c | 51.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 22c | 44.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 23c | 44.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 44.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 72c | 41.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 46c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 56c | 40.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 62c | 40.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 32c | 39.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 46c | 38.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 38.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 52c | 38.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 30c | 38.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 36.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.