World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38e51a14e87089d7a3922a59cc1f9309113c17e8c7d5077136623dff85bea2bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 73c | 1,818$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.61 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 11c | 1,557$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.7 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 28c | 869.35$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.62 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 701.24$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.75 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed No | 71c | 649.94$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.68 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 634.33$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.3 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 72c | 584.49$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.51 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 489.52$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.12 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 457.17$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.23 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 32c | 449.4$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.52 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 38c | 395.1$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.34 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 390.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 41c | 369.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.83 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 66c | 360.53$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.95 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 338.6$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.03 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 34c | 226.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 216.15$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.03 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 207.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.66 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 205$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.86 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 6c | 205$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 27c | 189.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 189.58$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.74 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6201…a173backed Yes | 80c | 188.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 58c | 172.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 168$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 61c | 163.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed No | 15c | 156.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 153.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 153.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 36c | 151.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 149.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 33c | 145.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 19c | 135.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 16c | 134.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 42c | 123.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 30c | 122.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 44c | 113.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 106.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 30c | 96.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 44c | 89.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 56c | 89.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 59c | 89.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 31c | 88.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 59c | 85.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…d7ebbacked Yes | 76c | 80.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 56c | 79.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 76.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 44c | 74.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 53c | 72.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 68.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 44c | 62.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 60.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 45c | 58.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 58.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 20c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 34c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 78c | 51.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 50.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd24…f9d6backed Yes | 60c | 49.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 59c | 46.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 57c | 46.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 26c | 45.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 66c | 45.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 24c | 45.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes | 32c | 44.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 62c | 38.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 56c | 38.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 47c | 35.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 35.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 35.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 32c | 34.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 33.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 61c | 32.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.