TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,773
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,965

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,773 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6715…9365backed Yes73c1,818$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.617427%20 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No11c1,557$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.714521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes28c869.35$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.622339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No30c701.24$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.7521854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a3…09b8backed No71c649.94$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.682458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c634.33$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.344138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes72c584.49$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.516955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No69c489.52$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.1222355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No53c457.17$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2314959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes32c449.4$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.5210629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes38c395.1$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.344652.2%24 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No10c390.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.67335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No41c369.95$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.835957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No66c360.53$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.958854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No61c338.6$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0327143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes34c226.25$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.331442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c216.15$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes32c207.88$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.6632639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No65c205$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8626355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No6c205$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.25127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No14c200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No27c189.76$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3122111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No65c189.58$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7432354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6201…a173backed Yes80c188.58$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes58c172.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.761770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No66c168$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1631152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes61c163.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.744748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed No15c156.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7712816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No9c153.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.666346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c153.05$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8423459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No36c151.28$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0321844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes38c150$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.62835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c149.77$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0740648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes33c145.52$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No19c135.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.651369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No16c134.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.856847.1%32 W · 36 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No50c130$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No42c123.74$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.454355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No30c122.09$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.143030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes28c120$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4716738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes44c113.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.162751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No39c106.49$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.951,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed No30c96.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.015913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No41c95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5128558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No44c89.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.929558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No56c89.12$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.565554.5%30 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes59c89.1$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.225149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No31c88.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7816254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes59c85.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.254951%25 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb76a…d7ebbacked Yes76c80.07$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.831266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes56c79.14$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.517741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes61c76.08$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.617345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes31c75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.756330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No44c74.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9813155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No53c72.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.62958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c70$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4436055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No63c70$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.955954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c68.37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1718035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No44c62.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No31c60.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7444428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No45c58.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.045916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes45c58.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7818662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No20c58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.616051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes34c57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4210837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.633141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes78c51.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.173100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+72.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c50.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1334354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes39c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5711045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28c1…b087backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.51520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.084070%28 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+29.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216556.9%37 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd24…f9d6backed Yes60c49.94$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes63c47.62$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.624452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No59c46.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.538937.1%33 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes57c46.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1718638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No26c45.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7815056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes66c45.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.59666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No24c45.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.033212.5%4 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-82.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes34c45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.751080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+63%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes32c44.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.44825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No67c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8939952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276043.3%26 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked Yes34c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.65860.3%35 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80db…4a73backed Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272161.9%13 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+53.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed Yes33c39.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.791040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes59c39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.145644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked No62c38.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.997236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No56c38.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.625756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes51c37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.022536%9 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed No43c36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.434146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No47c35.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.716755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No33c35.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9716051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No71c35.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4213646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes32c34.97$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.785248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes58c34.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.482045%9 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes61c34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.273262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes30c33.67$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5714827%40 W · 108 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No70c32.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2319315.5%30 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes61c32.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.728865.9%58 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.