IPO · resolved market
Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f380941bf0fc1a485dcf07e006e932724d8a37405b9b0f908d8046a65a006e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,364$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 44c | 1,310$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.06 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…49c1backed No | 8c | 1,092$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81e…962abacked No | 8c | 1,032$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 1c | 1,010$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3b…bea0backed No | 8c | 987$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…679bbacked No | 8c | 957$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ae…1394backed No | 8c | 901$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…847dbacked No | 8c | 879$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…a385backed No | 8c | 877$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x563f…5f08backed No | 8c | 872$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…15fdbacked No | 7c | 856$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc827…c8b1backed No | 8c | 856$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…ce2abacked No | 27c | 850$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…d648backed No | 31c | 823.81$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.41 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 6c | 779.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 24c | 658.79$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 5c | 599.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 564.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7080…1f47backed No | 8c | 537$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0717…4a95backed No | 8c | 537$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 9c | 514.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked No | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…73cebacked No | 7c | 444.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 7c | 426.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 410.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 60c | 361$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 331.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 307.61$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.78 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…ae55backed No | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…f0f7backed No | 8c | 273.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18bd…c2c2backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 24c | 218.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 5c | 194.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 36c | 190.23$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…c691backed No | 9c | 178.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…71a2backed No | 8c | 157.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 155.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 14c | 134.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed No | 10c | 126.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 57c | 124.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4288…09c1backed Yes | 72c | 111.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ee…cc59backed Yes | 72c | 100.74$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc247…be63backed Yes | 76c | 86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 56.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 68c | 56.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 22c | 55.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed No | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…c288backed Yes | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…9ee4backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…e688backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Freddie Mac not IPO by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be $300B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $150B and $200B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.