IPO · resolved market
Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a3fec7d1056cb56f28fb7b67d02caefd0e7644f5fc01ee2d1378ce407aa79e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 1c | 3,169$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 2c | 2,672$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 1c | 1,880$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed No | 7c | 1,421$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,389$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 1,256$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,107$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa1…1e03backed No | 9c | 1,078$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 1c | 985.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 2c | 941.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…5f1cbacked Yes | 58c | 781.02$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 4c | 722.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 692.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 535.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +165%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 490.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 419$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…baacbacked Yes | 27c | 369.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +143%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 14c | 368.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 355$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 21c | 309.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 9c | 292.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 8c | 266.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 14c | 258.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 255.53$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -62%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 5c | 244.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…6c88backed No | 14c | 235.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…3005backed Yes | 74c | 208.53$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…821ebacked No | 14c | 207.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 69c | 189.11$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked No | 39c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd54e…0529backed No | 45c | 125.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed No | 10c | 121.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 15c | 103.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 100.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 33c | 86.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…d271backed No | 41c | 61.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 80c | 44.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…83e0backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52a6…db9cbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Databricks’ market cap be between $100B and $125B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Databricks’ market cap be between $125B and $150B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Databricks’ market cap be between $150B and $175B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Databricks’ market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Databricks’ market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.