Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44ba1879cc536687733992401f70d01f7339aeb9b098517eff0048edb34e8ce3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed No | 5c | 2,165$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 2,085$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5c…cda7backed No | 3c | 1,956$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 835.22$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 57c | 458.91$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.62 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 48c | 383.01$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.15 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 76c | 303.12$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 27c | 295.49$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.9 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…8dadbacked Yes | 29c | 259.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 64c | 250$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 62c | 249.82$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.88 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 235.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.51 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 42c | 235$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 226.24$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 29c | 205$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.55 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 199.24$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 13c | 160.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 145.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.61 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 21c | 138.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 25c | 134.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 55c | 100.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 94.76$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 29c | 91.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 88.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 27c | 71.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 28c | 61.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 41c | 53.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 61c | 52.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0899…2069backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 44.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 38.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 29.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 76c | 19.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 75c | 18.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 75c | 16.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…d0a9backed Yes | 80c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 72c | 15.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5d…d9b5backed No | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.