Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32012f3332eb462f5a7431764b01504a8915a1b9cfe5249a360512ab73a31cc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9970…2570backed Yes | 0c | 9,454$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 15c | 3,439$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.3 | 409 | 37.9%155 W · 254 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…f54abacked Yes | 1c | 3,178$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 1,279$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.91 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 4c | 933$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +158.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 68c | 867.18$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.97 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 2c | 732.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,327 | 34.1%452 W · 875 L | +46.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 75c | 622.26$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.02 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | +25.3wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 391.09$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 356.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 351.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,566 | 16.3%255 W · 1,311 L | +22.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 329.62$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.3 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 46c | 282.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 224.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 48c | 189.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 77c | 178.29$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 546 | 58.8%321 W · 225 L | +47.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 51c | 176.38$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…9ebebacked Yes | 58c | 170.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 161$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 156.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 149.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.85 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 54c | 143.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 143.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 29c | 135.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed No | 46c | 133.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 51c | 126$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 1,063 | 35.1%373 W · 690 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 57c | 120.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 1,114 | 35.1%391 W · 723 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 51c | 118.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 46c | 105.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 59c | 105.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 103$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 2,837 | 11.2%317 W · 2,520 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 96.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 72c | 94.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 281 | 50.9%143 W · 138 L | +24.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 86.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 86.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 44c | 84.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 1,617 | 52.1%843 W · 774 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 12c | 83.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 82.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 58c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 54c | 81.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -12.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 47c | 78.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 76.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 59c | 76.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 72.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 60c | 69.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 2,155 | 59.6%1,285 W · 870 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 1,611 | 61.8%995 W · 616 L | +17.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 55c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 831 | 42.6%354 W · 477 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 52c | 54.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 49c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -38.0wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,279 | 53.9%690 W · 589 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 49.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 56c | 49.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…8ed9backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 74c | 47.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 559 | 51.3%287 W · 272 L | +54.1wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 53c | 45.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 544 | 48.3%263 W · 281 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 45.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 45.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked Yes | 55c | 45.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 44c | 44.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 44.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 201 | 41.3%83 W · 118 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 183 | 40.4%74 W · 109 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 55c | 36.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 191 | 56%107 W · 84 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 55c | 36.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 36.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 51c | 29.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 36c | 29.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 48c | 27.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 901 | 45.7%412 W · 489 L | -29.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 48c | 27.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 54c | 27.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 59c | 27.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 56c | 25.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 560 | 67.1%376 W · 184 L | +26.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 24.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1,868 | 37.7%705 W · 1,163 L | +282.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 23.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 45c | 23.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | -31.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 59c | 19.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 555 | 58.7%326 W · 229 L | -24.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…7e5cbacked Yes | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 70c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 50 | 78%39 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.