Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8e6ebe62de5b17b1e4b8922c3aa114d12cedda1279ec72f4fba3af15e1c048d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 63c | 3,703$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.27 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 2,514$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 14c | 970.42$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 6c | 845$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 42c | 603.44$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 2c | 539.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 427.01$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 3c | 418.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 48c | 413$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.9 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 391.09$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 271.14$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.16 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 9c | 265.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 30c | 259.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.98 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 9c | 221.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 189.41$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 19c | 186.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.95 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 55c | 181.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 63c | 178.5$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 171.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 28c | 167.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 158.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 156$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 149.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 25c | 141$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 28c | 130.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 128.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 125$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 123.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 43c | 121.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 119$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 15c | 117.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 14c | 106.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 67c | 101.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 69c | 97.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 70c | 95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 91.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 91.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 48c | 84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked No | 61c | 82.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 77.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 29c | 69.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 73c | 65.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 21c | 62.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 62.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 68c | 60.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…e052backed No | 78c | 56.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 28c | 49.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 48.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 73c | 47.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked No | 69c | 43.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 67c | 42.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 77c | 42.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 41.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 59c | 40.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 38.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 37.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 36.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 74c | 35.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 54c | 33.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 62c | 29.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…494cbacked No | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 28.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 79c | 25.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 71c | 25.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 22.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 19.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 14.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.