Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21706749577c4ba0392132f393441706842987887a9dce7f2b4dc09e6bf362c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 51c | 591.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.3 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 46c | 512.93$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.67 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 42c | 310.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 308.39$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 51c | 234.2$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 45c | 229.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 195.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 31c | 192.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.15 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 46c | 180.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 161.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 48c | 156.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 133.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 130$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 126.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 112.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 109$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 106.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 100.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 99.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 43c | 95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 45c | 89.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 63c | 88.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 66c | 77.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 51c | 76.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 60c | 74.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 69.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 61c | 68.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 44c | 67.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 77c | 65.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 42c | 62.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 66c | 60.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 49c | 59.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…efdfbacked Yes | 51c | 58.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…3de0backed Yes | 73c | 56.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 55c | 55.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 51.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 67c | 51.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 47c | 49.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fc…16b5backed Yes | 68c | 49.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 49c | 47.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 44.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 62c | 37.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 52c | 34.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 34.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 51c | 33.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 36c | 32.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 37c | 31.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 52c | 31.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 68c | 29.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 50c | 29.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…d5d9backed No | 70c | 28.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 37c | 27.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…2213backed No | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed No | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 54c | 25.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…dc7abacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 24.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 53c | 23.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 22.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…b9b4backed Yes | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 76c | 20.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 75c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…2be0backed Yes | 50c | 20.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 80c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 58c | 19.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 56c | 18.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 56c | 18.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 63c | 17.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…7b5dbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.