Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d176127f7795f11893829f45554ab3b24e5a6f763586202d4a2763becf149be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 24c | 523.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.98 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 511.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.5 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 71c | 487.85$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.1 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 451.53$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 4c | 423.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.87 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 398.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 7c | 371.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.76 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 316.18$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 277.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.33 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 68c | 241.94$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 7c | 209.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.23 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 39c | 194.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 73c | 185.92$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 166.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 154.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 66c | 139.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 25c | 137.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 69c | 130.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 71c | 112.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 13c | 98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 31c | 94.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 72c | 81.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 15c | 80.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 75.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 70.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…7816backed Yes | 71c | 69.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 68cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 27c | 68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 78c | 54.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 70c | 50.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed Yes | 73c | 45.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 32c | 44.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 61c | 39.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 49c | 37.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…999cbacked Yes | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7e…3de7backed Yes | 59c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 30.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 80c | 28.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 41c | 28.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x318c…b4c8backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.