Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3646d2e242e6baa16ba690ee9ab532134fd25b68558da8f05afe74ac8df23f5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 370.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 12c | 343.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 259$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 21c | 167.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 128.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 127.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 38c | 115.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…ebddbacked No | 73c | 111.24$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 40 | 97.5%39 W · 1 L | +16.9wins | +0.42per pick | 55cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 101.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…1dc1backed Yes | 35c | 88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 75.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 77c | 75.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 32c | 63.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…10fabacked Yes | 35c | 62.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 26c | 58.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 58.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…5b35backed No | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…eb82backed No | 65c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fde…cc92backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 39c | 46.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 44c | 45.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c78…4f7bbacked No | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed No | 76c | 37.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 77c | 31.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 20.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…9ce1backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.