Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3eb2bc852215729be1dccbc5260c494ccc5946c21c7589aade713263d3070f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 4c | 2,504$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 1,636$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.13 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 1,115$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 1,043$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.7 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 74c | 1,040$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 484.87$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 13c | 427.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 422.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 33c | 398.36$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 366.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 22c | 346.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 304.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 292.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 24c | 289.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 261.07$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 244.84$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabae…508ebacked Yes | 39c | 241.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 18c | 224.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 28c | 220.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 21c | 215.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 9c | 189.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 20c | 189$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 6c | 181.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 17c | 179.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 29c | 178.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 178.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774b…37c3backed No | 76c | 177.82$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 177.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…cb4ebacked Yes | 20c | 171.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 17c | 164.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 161.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 73c | 159.34$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 150.41$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 27c | 149.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 28c | 148.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 147.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 11c | 139.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 135.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 23c | 130.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 77c | 128.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…62adbacked Yes | 22c | 128.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 32c | 124.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…ecc4backed Yes | 15c | 121.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 21c | 118.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf95…42c2backed Yes | 22c | 117$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 18c | 114.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 112.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 60c | 110.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 19c | 107.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…ac15backed Yes | 25c | 107.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 17c | 105.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 102.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 17c | 99.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6397…758bbacked No | 80c | 98.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 14c | 92.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 89.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed Yes | 12c | 83.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 27c | 83.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 79.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 76c | 78.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 78.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 78c | 77.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 21c | 76.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 80c | 75.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 76c | 75.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed Yes | 16c | 74.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed Yes | 15c | 74.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 79c | 74.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…0201backed Yes | 25c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 70.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 20c | 70.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 23c | 70.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 79c | 68.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 16c | 62.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…8e27backed Yes | 31c | 59.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 19c | 59.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 20c | 58.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 18c | 57.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 67c | 52.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 23c | 51.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 79c | 50.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…3ca8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 79c | 49.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 30c | 49.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 35c | 48.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…604cbacked Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 62c | 45.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 26c | 45.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 63c | 45.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 36c | 45.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5c…f5f6backed Yes | 43c | 42.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 39.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.