Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4351519b36bd73ea00a9ff9f8fe23c147b649937459424405752e0661a858492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 77c | 629.87$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.83 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 43c | 524.24$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.22 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 480.27$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 388.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 76c | 357.22$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7c…411abacked Yes | 42c | 336.56$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 25c | 274.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked No | 28c | 233.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 227.53$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 33c | 222.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 215.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 40c | 208.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 203.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.55 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 200.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 185.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 29c | 168.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.19 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 65c | 168.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 10c | 165.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 12c | 164.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 68c | 161.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 159.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 29c | 154.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 150.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 146.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 37c | 146.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 134.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.14 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 53c | 134.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed No | 73c | 133.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 74c | 132.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 128.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…f788backed Yes | 64c | 125.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 80c | 122.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 30c | 110.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 29c | 100.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 91.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 58c | 85.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 33c | 78.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f6…67ecbacked Yes | 49c | 76.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 34c | 74.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 57c | 73.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 29c | 73.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…1215backed Yes | 40c | 71.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 69.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 67c | 67.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 21c | 66.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 29c | 65.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 62.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 60.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 53c | 56.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…62adbacked Yes | 33c | 55.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 28c | 53.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 35c | 53.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 45c | 52.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 30c | 52.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 22c | 49.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…3bedbacked Yes | 24c | 49.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 41c | 49.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 54c | 48.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 76c | 42.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 27c | 41.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 44c | 41.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 37c | 40.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 38.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 40c | 37.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 72c | 35.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 30c | 34.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 70c | 33.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…40aebacked No | 62c | 32.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…f304backed Yes | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 78c | 30.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…5b51backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 59c | 28.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 42c | 28.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd230…02dbbacked Yes | 42c | 27.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 39c | 27.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 60c | 26.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ff…bb66backed No | 70c | 26.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 60c | 24.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 24.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 54c | 24.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 60c | 23.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 66c | 22.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…bdbfbacked No | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…8ed1backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked No | 70c | 19.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.