Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f49f0c5745897556e4fe20d76380b97e07df61be8351e9a7732586dcdf8dcd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 78c | 499.4$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked Yes | 31c | 390.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.57 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 14c | 359.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 17c | 341.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 30c | 318.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 303.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 291.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 245.37$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 234.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…48c4backed Yes | 37c | 232.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 211.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 78c | 186.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 70c | 185.04$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 74c | 168.83$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 157.87$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 156.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 156.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 36c | 149.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 19c | 135.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 64c | 128.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 32c | 120.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…2a41backed Yes | 37c | 110.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f6…67ecbacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…7f18backed Yes | 36c | 97.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 97.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 35c | 96.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 28c | 95.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…3bedbacked Yes | 44c | 94.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes | 23c | 91.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Yes | 18c | 72.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 66c | 70.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 64c | 69.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 62.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…ceb2backed Yes | 38c | 61.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 38c | 57.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 68c | 55.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…01e9backed Yes | 40c | 50.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 34c | 49.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 68c | 49.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 48.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…e1bcbacked Yes | 27c | 45.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 42c | 44.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 44.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…1d71backed Yes | 33c | 44.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 25c | 44.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b0…33c7backed Yes | 43c | 43.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf568…62adbacked No | 67c | 43.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 70c | 42.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 29c | 42.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 34c | 42.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…40aebacked No | 72c | 41.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 30c | 41.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…1215backed Yes | 39c | 41.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 72c | 40.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb681…1ed8backed No | 64c | 40.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…decdbacked Yes | 35c | 38.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 35c | 37.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf942…e4eebacked No | 65c | 35.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 34.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 34.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…54b8backed Yes | 37c | 33.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272a…88cfbacked Yes | 34c | 32.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…12c9backed No | 68c | 31.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 31.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…674ebacked Yes | 38c | 30.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…7bc8backed No | 61c | 29.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc567…269fbacked No | 67c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef74…af7dbacked No | 68c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 39c | 27.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 25.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd279…6838backed No | 64c | 20.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…c28ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 76cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked No | 64c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…2ed3backed No | 71c | 18.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 73c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed No | 77c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.