Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65df223f2ef6b1f69695c5d75455c882b4733f0fe9061d68d93279b33c79497d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 2,744$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.82 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 630.04$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 51c | 587.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 53c | 402$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.71 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 230.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 220.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 52c | 220.15$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 54c | 199$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked No | 61c | 165.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 54c | 148$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 120.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 52c | 119.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 110.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 53c | 107.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed No | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 104.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 45c | 99.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 48c | 98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 97.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked Yes | 52c | 91.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 53c | 89.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 89.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 48c | 88.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 81.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 44c | 78.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 75.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 55c | 71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 75c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 52c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 45c | 54.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 52.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…5f3bbacked Yes | 49c | 42.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 39.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 48c | 39.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 37.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…4ccabacked No | 45c | 36.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 50c | 33.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 54c | 33.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 53c | 31.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 48c | 31.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 45c | 29.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…aa80backed Yes | 76c | 29.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 23.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 54c | 20.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 54c | 19.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.