Asian League · resolved market
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac873e33320d90b3e2d0a61fc5eed941b5e043e8537b09a873baf73c2e610c8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 54c | 5,772$3,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,098.82 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 37c | 2,805$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.93 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Yes | 37c | 1,301$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd64d…bcfebacked Yes | 72c | 1,095$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 34c | 656.98$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.23 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 60c | 589.33$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.46 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 50c | 461.09$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.97 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 364.91$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.12 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f4…c90bbacked Yes | 65c | 347.8$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 78c | 275.98$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…30a9backed No | 22c | 262.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 76c | 219.57$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…578abacked Yes | 75c | 200.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…ea46backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 43c | 132$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 68c | 131.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 79c | 130$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 23c | 120.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 61c | 102$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 31c | 93.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4584…5473backed Yes | 79c | 87.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 84.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 65c | 80.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…f0e0backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 27c | 61.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…654ebacked Yes | 79c | 50.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…adb6backed Yes | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 73c | 43.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…5f50backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…6c9fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed No | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.