TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,811
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,976

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,811 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8383…cb59backed No26c497.62$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.8349543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes46c437.13$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20025933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No54c382.48$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.4271823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No46c370.63$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.462,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No38c247.13$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.34,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed Yes50c239.97$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.419551.8%101 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11d0…69c9backed Yes78c222.19$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3810551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes47c216.78$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.021,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No47c202.43$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.214,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No55c193.55$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.845,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes29c189.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.886,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No57c184.05$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.054,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No33c168.27$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes21c167.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.424,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes42c147.63$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.321,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No53c133.55$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0223146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes58c131.12$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.631,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes54c116.73$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.033,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes55c115.15$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.631,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x880d…adb6backed No54c108.7$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x987f…b37dbacked Yes39c101.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0410133.7%34 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.021,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.519042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.959458.5%55 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x847e…a592backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.763345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ad0…0284backed Yes48c99.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.992321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes59c99.56$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.973,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No67c97.07$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2267158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No53c94.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3586847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba09…ea86backed Yes40c91.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8540%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Yes70c88.37$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.542231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No54c86.68$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.183,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fef…f2b6backed No64c85.79$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.49475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No50c81.13$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.291,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes52c78.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3236150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No41c77.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.151,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No52c74.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.054,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed Yes51c73.15$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5220347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed Yes51c73.15$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5212437.1%46 W · 78 L-17.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No19c71.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.937,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No56c71.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.529150.5%46 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed No19c70.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4417020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2660…afa2backed No71c70.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.471586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+26.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No52c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.65,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5676…2213backed No42c69.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.28825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No39c68.02$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.363,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No38c67.91$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2171057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e3…e4e2backed Yes48c66.52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.251428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes42c62.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2859144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No68c60.04$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4144366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed Yes47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.233550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.13,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes58c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No41c59.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.191,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No46c56.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.529,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No53c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.852,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x537e…a602backed Yes52c54.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.131241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No54c54.22$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1842366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes37c54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c51.06$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.033,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes48c50.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.34938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.34,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes63c47.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.741,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf456…d568backed Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021338%81 W · 132 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.958,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No59c44.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.381,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes65c43.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9312660.3%76 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes45c43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.353145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No58c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7927552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes36c42.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.32,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb3…e3d3backed Yes49c41.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes62c40.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3278663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes49c39.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.646148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa7…afb4backed No42c39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.811566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No42c37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.634,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes56c35.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes49c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.151,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes49c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes38c34.11$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes44c34.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157540%30 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ab4…99e3backed Yes62c32.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No50c30.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.356,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c30…b668backed Yes49c30.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515940.3%64 W · 95 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No39c30.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5317355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c6b…268abacked Yes73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.92259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a84…7455backed Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea0…85b3backed Yes55c29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.952642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-25.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes53c28.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2437465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes42c28.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0289951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes49c28.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff3…aa8dbacked Yes74c28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.621181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c39…1aedbacked Yes54c27.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes55c27.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1528142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9009…1621backed Yes40c26.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.519663.3%124 W · 72 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No52c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.484,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked No46c24.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9818368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes51c22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.281,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb8…7809backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.413554.1%73 W · 62 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.692761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.