Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce498bce73355c171889683839bd5d51e278508c7c17bcba2ff9612de633f64d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 425.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 14c | 391.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.57 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 34c | 382.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.13 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 372.78$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 300.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1fef…f2b6backed Yes | 32c | 274.39$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 14c | 273.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 203.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 185.53$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 181.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 177.4$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 160$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 16c | 144.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 141.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 138.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 98.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 13c | 94.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 16c | 93.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 17c | 87.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb3…e3d3backed Yes | 38c | 78.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 77.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 59c | 67.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 67.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 30c | 64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 59c | 63.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 76c | 61.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…0284backed Yes | 18c | 60.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 71c | 58.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 58.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 22c | 56.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 42c | 56.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 19c | 55.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 46.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 56c | 44.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 54c | 39.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 32c | 33.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…7455backed Yes | 51c | 32.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f7…ad30backed No | 79c | 20.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 62c | 19.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 68c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…bad1backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 69c | 14.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.