Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88d947045e100ae9c3fbdce22b4c39e2a876683caa6fae743cbc30b5344c12fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 1,019$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.5 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 379.01$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 27c | 369.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 19c | 288.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 71c | 210.65$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 31c | 209.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 27c | 204.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 190$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 174.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 27c | 139.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fef…f2b6backed No | 73c | 137.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 136.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 136.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 72c | 132.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 79c | 129.41$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 124.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 121.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 27c | 116.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 31c | 115.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 33c | 102.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 101.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 100.65$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad0…0284backed Yes | 31c | 99.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 97.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 97.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 96.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 96.3$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 91.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 74.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 72.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 70.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…e4e2backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…23debacked No | 78c | 63.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 62.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 62.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 68c | 60.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…7455backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 27c | 56.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 55.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 22c | 54.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d4…f843backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 49.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 26c | 44.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 32c | 44.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 70c | 42.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 80c | 34.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 31.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 31.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…6f94backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed No | 66c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 79c | 22.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…1780backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 71c | 20.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…73c3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.