TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on April 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$150,285
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,828

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,285 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x880d…adb6backed No2c55,608$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.512030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b8c…b2eebacked No0c12,864$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.591656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea30…4144backed No1c2,143$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.28425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-52.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No11c1,421$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2861821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed No8c1,302$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6716832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3511…23fcbacked Yes68c993.39$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.382050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No8c829.34$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.018,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes65c754.09$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26428718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0baa…ff26backed No12c752.35$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.21850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes68c651.82$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No7c599.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7128737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No7c597.33$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes68c557.48$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.771,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No5c531.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.734319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes57c482.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.6318041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No30c411.45$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.174,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff69…16b5backed No20c385.12$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.133324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5dd0…9f9abacked No26c358.07$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.611827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83e3…8973backed No28c344.41$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.731154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b34…8208backed Yes78c333.79$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.81127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ee…5ba7backed Yes78c331.45$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.42837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+159.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes5c300$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2851,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes68c290.48$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1914834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes63c271.86$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.651,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x503f…9e72backed No5c271.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes60c261.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3920534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No57c229.89$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.9310569.5%73 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No11c223.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6219353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes22c212.41$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.3210225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae4…bd41backed No12c206.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.753345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5efb…5e3bbacked No17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+47%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4015545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69e3…2288backed Yes70c198.83$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.655244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5637…21f4backed Yes80c198.77$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.543938.5%15 W · 24 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked Yes66c195.21$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.798250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes67c191.66$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0735465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes50c181.25$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes41c175.17$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.29,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45be…0f0bbacked No21c174.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.611030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedfd…5728backed No7c170.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.94812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-79.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes51c166.21$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.282330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-45.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes10c157.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.441,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes66c152.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4561629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0b…961fbacked No12c150.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.699436.2%34 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…5289backed Yes69c146.57$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.821729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b2…49aabacked No17c143.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.414146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef6a…18e8backed No14c142.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.357360.3%44 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No36c138.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9986173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes57c138.42$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1664333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd0…d9c3backed No20c138$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes65c136.18$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.062536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes70c129.03$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.323855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No50c128.46$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6688973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcdc…57b3backed Yes75c126.96$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6210577.1%81 W · 24 L+11.1wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+19.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c120.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.117,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No80c120$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No21c115.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No19c112.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.37,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes16c106.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.386847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes70c104.39$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7165043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes48c103.02$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9449038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No14c102$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.799,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2012735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes41c99.3$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5939541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc342…c744backed No45c96.72$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.15349.1%26 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7609…f500backed No31c96.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed No15c95.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.212033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0abf…a278backed No21c93.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes77c85.09$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.381,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes57c83.49$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.561,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes80c82.75$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7231868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked No16c80.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2714025.7%36 W · 104 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f0b…2116backed No53c80.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.33122.6%7 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-51.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes76c79.95$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.032,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes66c75.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.143,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93a6…49ddbacked No16c75.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes79c71.2$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2231649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes74c71.07$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.465934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f45…506bbacked No18c68.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.23185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes59c65.41$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.074170.7%29 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed Yes59c64.74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.373243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked Yes19c63.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.485032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed No32c62.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes57c57.85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9835362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes78c57.49$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7330652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc970…e315backed No18c57.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.296553.8%35 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No24c54.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.357232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x7bb5…3bf4backed No51c54.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.99656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes42c52.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.625175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2411835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e83…5659backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes51c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1941733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x318f…2a1ebacked No30c46.65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f21…b935backed Yes62c46.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes63c46.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes55c45.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6674023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52a1…60e6backed Yes80c42.76$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No27c42.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7290734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc80…f224backed Yes61c41.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.891947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.