Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d03f76268a14b0b14c6685a41b260277de359c1da6bd5b5045cd5d29f9824c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02f3…94cbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…908fbacked Yes | 5c | 999.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 807.53$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 21c | 736.2$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.26 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…4540backed Yes | 14c | 640.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 487.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0abf…a278backed Yes | 6c | 471.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…4735backed Yes | 3c | 457.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 453.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 4c | 434.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked Yes | 24c | 415.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 4c | 414.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 12c | 412.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…d20bbacked Yes | 23c | 382.72$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 374.26$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 26c | 357.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…3afebacked Yes | 3c | 344.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed Yes | 18c | 343.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 5c | 319.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 29c | 317.91$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.93 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…5e3bbacked Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +47%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 6c | 230.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…1968backed Yes | 18c | 222.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 12c | 220$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 19c | 201.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 77c | 173.22$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45be…0f0bbacked Yes | 12c | 163.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 15c | 153.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…0937backed Yes | 31c | 151.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 21c | 146.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 17c | 141.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 139.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 19c | 129.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6baa…d618backed Yes | 26c | 124.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 20c | 120.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 29c | 106.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…eacdbacked Yes | 24c | 99.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 15c | 99.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 14c | 98.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 22c | 96.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed Yes | 26c | 93.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 21c | 92.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 21c | 91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 22c | 90.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 89.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1882…6974backed Yes | 17c | 78.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 75.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…9960backed Yes | 27c | 71.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 68.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 19c | 68.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 67.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 66.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…23fcbacked Yes | 29c | 64.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…aeecbacked Yes | 21c | 60.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…e853backed Yes | 21c | 57.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…dd39backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 20c | 53.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 22c | 50.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 70c | 49.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 24c | 48.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed Yes | 22c | 45.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 43.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 78c | 37.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 36.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 76c | 31.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…4f74backed No | 78c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 18.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 74c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…c45ebacked No | 74c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or below on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on April 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.