AI · resolved market
Will Melania say "Child" or "Boy" or "Girl" 6+ times during statement on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ca69fecf20cdd2563160a21bd1b98fd0fb0ac7e143f972fd7323db243c3e6d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c62…cd27backed Yes | 2c | 2,300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc73…d0b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,829$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 55c | 139.43$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 27c | 83.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 48c | 72.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes | 64c | 47.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed No | 36c | 38.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…54fcbacked No | 44c | 34.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +310.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 78c | 33.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes | 60c | 33.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melania say "Child" or "Boy" or "Girl" 6+ times during statement on April 9?this page
- Will Melania say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "April" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Be Best" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Challenge" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Congress" during statement on April 9?Yes won
- Will Melania say "Danger" or "Dangerous" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Empower" or "Empowering" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Family" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "First Lady" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Honor" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Husband" or "Trump" during statement on April 9?Yes won
- Will Melania say "Iran" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Law" or "Order" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Love" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Peace" or "War" 4+ times during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Predator" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Revenge" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "School" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "UN" or "United Nations" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania's remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.