AI · resolved market
Will Melania say "Husband" or "Trump" during statement on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6daf2739007b44920fa030fdf64b8a7084eb8dd24b076011965f502f3f1bbae2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 2c | 624.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 43c | 356.68$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.07 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 50c | 150.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…e21dbacked Yes | 61c | 115.15$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c8…430cbacked Yes | 42c | 115$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 56c | 113.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 60c | 100.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +236.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 50c | 100.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe350…c0c8backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f4…ab89backed Yes | 50c | 80.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 61c | 76.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 39c | 71.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 48c | 46.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…cbddbacked No | 55c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes | 59c | 34.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 50c | 33.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked No | 46c | 31.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf711…c076backed Yes | 55c | 27.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695f…0e49backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…b702backed No | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melania say "Husband" or "Trump" during statement on April 9?this page
- Will Melania say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "April" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Be Best" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Challenge" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Child" or "Boy" or "Girl" 6+ times during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Congress" during statement on April 9?Yes won
- Will Melania say "Danger" or "Dangerous" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Empower" or "Empowering" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Family" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "First Lady" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Honor" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Iran" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Law" or "Order" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Love" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Peace" or "War" 4+ times during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Predator" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Revenge" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 5+ times during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "School" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania say "UN" or "United Nations" during statement on April 9?No won
- Will Melania's remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.