IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9f11ff653943b60c7176bf7d997e5fbe8742e0d2c25a9af680f95fc87e4d771
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 9,957$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.29 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b7…cc0ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,276$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89af…74dbbacked Yes | 2c | 6,474$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 1c | 6,422$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 3c | 5,652$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.92 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,586$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,480$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…540ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,625$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a73…c908backed Yes | 3c | 3,673$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…76b4backed Yes | 2c | 3,160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…f813backed Yes | 2c | 2,876$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,750$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ab…8558backed Yes | 2c | 1,396$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0ebabacked Yes | 2c | 1,207$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,199$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e0…1134backed Yes | 17c | 1,100$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f8…34f2backed Yes | 3c | 1,092$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 1,045$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb60…137abacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…233fbacked Yes | 13c | 999.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 956.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 3c | 950$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…ed4abacked Yes | 21c | 468.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed Yes | 6c | 460$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0225…d5b5backed Yes | 15c | 438.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 366.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 5c | 355.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 305.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x597b…9ea8backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba7…4782backed Yes | 37c | 291.23$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 7c | 276.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c6…4d97backed Yes | 4c | 258.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 16c | 246.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 228.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc32…cc84backed Yes | 17c | 213.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc5…5c2dbacked Yes | 24c | 210.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 79c | 202.54$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…fe38backed Yes | 9c | 200.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 26c | 154.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b8…f998backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 139$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 78c | 126$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 17c | 122.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb336…9bc2backed Yes | 17c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355a…b850backed Yes | 49c | 102.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0589…b26bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9260…b380backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…e108backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…240cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 11c | 92.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…7676backed Yes | 17c | 86.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4565…6527backed Yes | 16c | 62.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c0…2f6dbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 79c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 13.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?this page
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?No won
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?No won
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?Yes won
- Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.