NFL · resolved market
Will the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52e298069071bc87f3181a48b304cd5e39827d21064435368da87c325b4157d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0ef…3758backed Yes | 1c | 2,652$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 2c | 1,650$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 80c | 1,345$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.31 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,248$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 53c | 1,000$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.91 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 47c | 970.68$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.13 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 78c | 955.53$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.22 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770d…ca11backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Yes | 21c | 350$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -9.5wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Yes | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…3ee3backed No | 77c | 260.87$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed No | 50c | 250.91$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…4d0bbacked Yes | 49c | 249.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.31 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 51c | 244.82$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 230$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 32c | 200$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…ef84backed Yes | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…7518backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb61b…edd5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…0354backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…9d52backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbb…77eebacked Yes | 21c | 62.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving?this page
- Will the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving?No won
- Will the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving?No won
- Will the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving?Yes won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.