NFL · resolved market
Will the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ef8ab49d7fb5d87edc091ea85bdbd2dab78627b4265b25006b37e7b45b4392c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 70c | 2,235$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.41 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7671…7244backed Yes | 30c | 1,666$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.24 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.02 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…05f6backed No | 76c | 1,411$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.76 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…152bbacked No | 70c | 1,148$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 30c | 700$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 69c | 669.06$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.15 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 28c | 299.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…f74cbacked Yes | 31c | 225.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…7518backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…0354backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…5fd6backed Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…d59dbacked No | 72c | 63.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…f5edbacked Yes | 49c | 50.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d15…c59cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +50%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked Yes | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5650…8af4backed Yes | 30c | 36.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…0638backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454e…62b9backed No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 71c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving?this page
- Will the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving?No won
- Will the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving?No won
- Will the Baltimore Ravens, Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, and Dallas Cowboys all win on Thanksgiving?Yes won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, and Kansas City Chiefs all win on Thanksgiving?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.