Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cf06d4b3c51116c349da2f5e94e36f105e36c3cfb03b15f9d02f736a935a5bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Nakashima, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Medvedev | 24c | 4,638$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,542.38 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Medvedev | 27c | 2,475$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.82 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Medvedev | 16c | 2,323$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,951.1 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nakashima | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb035…ff78backed Nakashima | 61c | 1,651$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.69 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Nakashima | 47c | 1,646$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.43 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8287…059ebacked Medvedev | 46c | 1,438$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Nakashima | 45c | 1,005$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.1 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Nakashima | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Medvedev | 51c | 955.08$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.66 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Medvedev | 15c | 878.32$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.77 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Medvedev | 23c | 740.25$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.1 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…47b2backed Medvedev | 44c | 570.92$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.92 | 385 | 57.1%220 W · 165 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…5a97backed Medvedev | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Nakashima | 46c | 463.58$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.25 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Medvedev | 37c | 418$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.34 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nakashima | 61c | 400$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.17 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…7f32backed Medvedev | 40c | 375$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6974…11b4backed Medvedev | 48c | 203.93$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805f…54a4backed Nakashima | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Medvedev | 55c | 194.36$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Nakashima | 47c | 144.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a8…e802backed Medvedev | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 363 | 42.1%153 W · 210 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…675bbacked Medvedev | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 137 | 63.5%87 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Medvedev | 53c | 108.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Medvedev | 53c | 104.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Medvedev | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Medvedev | 38c | 88.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…efe7backed Medvedev | 46c | 85.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…d7b3backed Nakashima | 49c | 69.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Nakashima | 49c | 68.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Medvedev | 46c | 62.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Medvedev | 51c | 54.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Medvedev | 39c | 51.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Medvedev | 52c | 48.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…d23abacked Medvedev | 52c | 47.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Nakashima | 48c | 41.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Medvedev | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Medvedevthis page
- Brandon Nakashima vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil MedvedevBrandon Nakashima won
- Nakashima vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Nakashima vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Nakashima vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 2 Winner: Nakashima vs MedvedevNakashima won
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)Nakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.