Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x518daf8cff09f5057c90ac9b427bdf451d1971820f6f9743312381d5fca5f74b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Medvedev, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Nakashima | 67c | 2,022$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.22 | 607 | 53.7%326 W · 281 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc466…3f77backed Medvedev | 33c | 1,239$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…c0d5backed Medvedev | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Nakashima | 67c | 446.86$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.46 | 177 | 58.8%104 W · 73 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Medvedev | 31c | 420.09$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.23 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Medvedev | 31c | 396.59$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.94 | 1,102 | 52.2%575 W · 527 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nakashima | 75c | 334.39$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Medvedev | 46c | 322.04$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.7 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6974…11b4backed Medvedev | 63c | 310.21$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Medvedev | 31c | 296.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 1,515 | 37.7%571 W · 944 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…96d1backed Nakashima | 69c | 280$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 465 | 65.6%305 W · 160 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Nakashima | 68c | 225.09$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.69 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Nakashima | 69c | 225.04$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e0…8573backed Nakashima | 45c | 224.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.22 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Medvedev | 36c | 223.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 5,009 | 41.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L | -82.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…afc1backed Nakashima | 69c | 221.74$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…c2c4backed Nakashima | 69c | 208.2$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed Nakashima | 77c | 206.75$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 115 | 53.9%62 W · 53 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Nakashima | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Nakashima | 69c | 195.74$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 929 | 53.5%497 W · 432 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…ea47backed Nakashima | 69c | 176.13$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Medvedev | 32c | 156.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Medvedev | 31c | 154.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Medvedev | 20c | 118.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Medvedev | 31c | 113.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 1,161 | 44.3%514 W · 647 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Nakashima | 29c | 107.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…1963backed Nakashima | 69c | 102.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Medvedev | 31c | 102.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 2,204 | 36.9%813 W · 1,391 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86c…b76fbacked Nakashima | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 207 | 63.3%131 W · 76 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Medvedev | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 381 | 44.6%170 W · 211 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcb…50fcbacked Medvedev | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Nakashima | 40c | 97.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d102backed Medvedev | 33c | 91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Nakashima | 69c | 65.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Medvedev | 30c | 64.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,009 | 38.3%386 W · 623 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Medvedev | 30c | 64.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 577 | 36.7%212 W · 365 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…75abbacked Medvedev | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Medvedev | 32c | 59.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 593 | 47.4%281 W · 312 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Medvedev | 32c | 57.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Medvedev | 32c | 55.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 186 | 47.8%89 W · 97 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4d…346dbacked Medvedev | 50c | 54.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Medvedev | 32c | 53.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Medvedev | 31c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 710 | 45.4%322 W · 388 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Medvedev | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 320 | 49.1%157 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Nakashima | 60c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Nakashima | 69c | 43.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Nakashima | 51c | 39.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69f…1a6abacked Nakashima | 69c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)this page
- Brandon Nakashima vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil MedvedevBrandon Nakashima won
- Nakashima vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Nakashima vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Nakashima vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs MedvedevMedvedev won
- Set 2 Winner: Nakashima vs MedvedevNakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.