Tennis · resolved market
Nakashima vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x040df9ea14476afb9c4aa6a3a842bdfbae3b88d7b40ae34fe503a201231c1e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 57c | 302.49$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.96 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 61c | 292.02$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…3ca3backed Under | 52c | 202$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 494 | 47.2%233 W · 261 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 35c | 196.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 21c | 178.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.49 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 48c | 102$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 49c | 85.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed Under | 44c | 82.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Under | 48c | 50.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 34c | 41.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 59c | 41.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9f…0c25backed Under | 42c | 40.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 30.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 61c | 20.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Over | 58c | 20.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf642…640bbacked Over | 63c | 19.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nakashima vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 23.5this page
- Brandon Nakashima vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil MedvedevBrandon Nakashima won
- Nakashima vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Nakashima vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs MedvedevMedvedev won
- Set 2 Winner: Nakashima vs MedvedevNakashima won
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)Nakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.