Serie A · resolved market
Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdce8c754cad59267f6193bb6073ac3a19bf945dfcaaa8bf5eabeb6b82f306177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 66c | 4,999$3,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,299.37 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 3,097$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,036.49 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.85 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…ff11backed Under | 66c | 1,439$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.86 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 19c | 1,250$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.95 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…1c9fbacked Under | 36c | 966.79$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 10c | 859.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 511.67$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.67 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 60c | 511.67$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.67 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 36c | 439.94$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.56 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 64c | 328.9$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 12.2%9 W · 65 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 21c | 236.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.36 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 27c | 235.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 43c | 214.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 32c | 184$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.86 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c46…6a2abacked Under | 16c | 172$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 80c | 131$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 80c | 109$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Over | 20c | 103.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Under | 79c | 94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked Under | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 80c | 69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…e759backed Under | 44c | 66.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…675bbacked Under | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 80c | 59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 20c | 59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Under | 79c | 58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Over | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 33c | 57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Under | 79c | 48.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…8efdbacked Under | 42c | 48.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 80c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 59c | 44.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 78c | 36.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 80c | 33.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…f904backed Under | 39c | 32.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 34c | 29.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 80c | 27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…bc38backed Over | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 79c | 22.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 80c | 21.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5this page
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.