Serie A · resolved market
Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b5591d86b19c79ad3c446abe0d569aad70dd6b71d2d2ee4ad1f243f019ac9ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 29,348$11,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,787.73 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 55c | 23,112$12,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,345.74 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 1,629$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.12 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 1,509$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.68 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 4c | 1,310$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 74 | 12.2%9 W · 65 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Under | 22c | 824.89$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.48 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 70c | 714.43$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.43 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.56 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Under | 72c | 551.39$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…245dbacked Under | 53c | 441.73$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.17 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 7c | 419.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.78 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…d82ebacked Under | 62c | 398.31$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed Over | 8c | 393.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.37 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 347.55$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.75 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 67c | 254.88$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 69c | 250.03$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Under | 29c | 178$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 75c | 174.41$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 28c | 151.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…9479backed Over | 69c | 140$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…1d2abacked Over | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Under | 73c | 124.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…2024backed Over | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 52c | 121.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 115.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…1c9fbacked Under | 21c | 101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 64c | 93.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Over | 79c | 82.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Over | 60c | 79.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 51c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Under | 29c | 74.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 31c | 74.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 35c | 63.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +9.1wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0897…a901backed Under | 72c | 62.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…8efdbacked Under | 51c | 56.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 25c | 51.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…4fc6backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 44c | 47.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4aa…947cbacked Over | 74c | 45.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Over | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 50c | 29.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf18…7a1abacked Under | 47c | 26.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd77…d379backed Under | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 76c | 24.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 53c | 23.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed Over | 66c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1b…4045backed Under | 48c | 21.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5this page
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.