TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe1e1…91de

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst NHL at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Suns vs. Pistonsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$1,199
Wizards vs. Clippersbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$284.96
Knicks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,021Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+186.5%+$1,903.85
Suns vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+88.7%+$443.4
Nuggets vs. Pelicansbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+75.4%+$150.88
Bulls vs. Rocketsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Lakers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$891Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+117.4%+$1,045.5
Rockets vs. Kingsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Heat vs. Thunderbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Bucks vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+49.3%+$73.88
Clippers vs. Pistonsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+203%+$203.03
Rockets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+212.5%+$267.6
Raptors vs. Celticsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$225
76ers vs. Magicbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+66.7%+$50.42
All 15 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST1225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hobart International: Antonia Ruzic vs Solana Sierrabacked Sierra · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$250
ASB Classic: Fabian Marozsan vs Casper Ruudbacked Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Hobart International: Emma Raducanu vs Camila Osoriobacked Osorio · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$74.99
Hobart International: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierrabacked Sierra · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+135.1%+$140.68
Adelaide International: Victoria Mboko vs Anna Kalinskayabacked Kalinskaya · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$132
Adelaide International: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Aleksandar Vukicbacked Vukic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+254.1%+$762.27
Adelaide International: Ethan Quinn vs Marton Fucsovicsbacked Quinn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$350
Adelaide International: Damir Dzumhur vs Alexander Shevchenkobacked Dzumhur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Adelaide International: Jelena Ostapenko vs Tereza Valentovabacked Ostapenko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Adelaide International: Reilly Opelka vs Alexei Popyrinbacked Popyrin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Hobart International: Katie Volynets vs Ann Libacked Volynets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublikbacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+88.7%+$193.68
All 12 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick44cpaid-76.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NHL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$241.28
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+88.7%+$272.83
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+53.8%+$26.92
All 4 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boise State Broncos vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebelsbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+233.3%+$233.33
UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsbacked UC Irvine Anteaters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$300
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs OG (BO3)backed OG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Counter-Strike: Imperial Academy vs FUT Academy (BO3)backed Imperial Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$104
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.