TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bublikof Musetti, Bublik
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$439,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$510,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $439,836 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8058…d023backed Bublik52c23,180$11,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,226.42771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick38cpaid+57.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bublik69c20,434$14,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,302.452,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Musetti23c19,596$4,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,546.998,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Musetti39c15,996$6,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,203.469242.4%39 W · 53 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Musetti28c15,802$4,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,352.5919134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd289…079fbacked Musetti50c15,112$7,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5242568%17 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Musetti48c14,333$6,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,879.9176146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc64d…c8b7backed Musetti46c13,758$6,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,328.84475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+53.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Musetti48c11,799$5,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,718.8431647.8%151 W · 165 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Musetti49c11,652$5,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,709.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Bublik79c11,057$8,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,34858639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed Bublik50c10,809$5,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,404.393046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Bublik51c10,133$5,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,931.5676140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Musetti17c9,995$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.071,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7318…cc3cbacked Musetti49c8,500$4,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,165666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Musetti24c8,000$1,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.498158%47 W · 34 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Bublik56c7,000$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,06010443.3%45 W · 59 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bublik69c6,636$4,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,073.2611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Musetti19c6,289$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.041,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Bublik56c6,214$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,714.4828444.7%127 W · 157 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d9d…e6c3backed Bublik53c5,621$2,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.885851.7%30 W · 28 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b6…fc5dbacked Musetti43c5,500$2,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,377.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked Bublik58c5,166$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.0113260.6%80 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Bublik52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.9643051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8049…1e6cbacked Musetti32c4,710$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Musetti48c4,349$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.5220653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Bublik51c3,965$2,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,942.821,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x659c…85bbbacked Musetti49c3,702$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.865349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bublik54c3,644$1,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.672,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Musetti49c2,731$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33819131.4%60 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf509…67b9backed Bublik78c2,672$2,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Bublik51c2,594$1,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271.0239144.2%173 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Musetti13c2,489$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.531,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e13…670bbacked Bublik76c2,337$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.525164.7%33 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Musetti34c2,246$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.884,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Musetti21c2,239$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.238429.8%25 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Bublik47c2,200$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17615447.4%73 W · 81 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bublik51c2,179$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.711,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Musetti48c2,084$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00062061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x681d…3fa1backed Musetti6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-63.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…9622backed Musetti1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Musetti48c2,000$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.998446.4%39 W · 45 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6125…1b5fbacked Bublik54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.8757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Musetti15c1,938$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.7418644.6%83 W · 103 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd6…8577backed Musetti37c1,900$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70110943.1%47 W · 62 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bublik51c1,862$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.272,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Musetti27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Bublik52c1,750$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84018047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Bublik62c1,656$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.591,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x710c…892cbacked Musetti49c1,653$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.671931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-42.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ceb…3656backed Musetti34c1,550$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.95119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick32cpaid-86.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Musetti47c1,532$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.6325428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Musetti47c1,411$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.125644.6%25 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Bublik58c1,370$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.335860.3%35 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked Bublik60c1,352$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.721625%4 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-50.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Musetti42c1,319$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.8834745.2%157 W · 190 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Musetti12c1,298$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2513844.2%61 W · 77 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2718…c9c4backed Musetti11c1,281$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-59.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Musetti47c1,227$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58018933.9%64 W · 125 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Bublik53c1,215$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.3462545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Musetti48c1,090$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.657645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff72…512bbacked Musetti48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006833.8%23 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37f8…b5e5backed Bublik57c1,036$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.281163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8a0…35b6backed Bublik57c1,032$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.26944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Bublik52c1,015$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.396549.2%32 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Musetti27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27066949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Bublik52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48040144.4%178 W · 223 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Musetti17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17028451.1%145 W · 139 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Musetti27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27081938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed Bublik53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4701457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Bublik58c996.64$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.351,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cea…b12dbacked Musetti37c982.16$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.217427%20 W · 54 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Bublik54c927.71$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.912650%13 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Bublik54c926.82$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.826159%36 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Bublik59c865.17$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.792,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Bublik53c804.72$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.7219846%91 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed Musetti29c763.96$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5521843.1%94 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Musetti21c719.05$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15114546.2%67 W · 78 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Bublik55c700$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.873930.8%12 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9332…280ebacked Musetti32c699.99$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2277122.5%16 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c49…ca9dbacked Bublik51c692.45$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.473046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Musetti25c638.25$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.328139.1%110 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Musetti45c634.98$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.7424340.3%98 W · 145 L-11.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Musetti11c599.98$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6858021.9%127 W · 453 L+2.5wins0.00per pick21cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Musetti49c589.99$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.482,33546.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L+55.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Musetti13c586.48$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8460%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Musetti19c584.25$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0522236.9%82 W · 140 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87e8…7102backed Bublik52c576.92$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.921872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+25.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9236…da58backed Bublik72c564.51$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.873053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Bublik74c542.68$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.352,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9501…a052backed Bublik53c519.94$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.941675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xca39…4ed7backed Bublik52c510.4$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.9914060.7%85 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Musetti49c510.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25038348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Musetti10c501.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1426921.2%57 W · 212 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad1f…310abacked Bublik52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea8…4e59backed Musetti48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b9…9719backed Bublik64c497.98$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.333046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-24.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Bublik77c497.79$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.52,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2977…6efcbacked Bublik52c494.71$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.463938.5%15 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Bublik53c445.28$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.2826158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.