TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Penguins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Lightning, Penguins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$382,331
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$394,292

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,331 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 418 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning57c99,551$56,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,008.351,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Lightning56c42,382$23,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,647.9867051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Penguins43c30,000$12,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,899.8230944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Penguins44c27,645$12,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,163.788952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Penguins43c27,158$11,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,709.595364.2%34 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Lightning57c24,196$13,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,504.4656649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Lightning57c21,127$12,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,084.461,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Penguins44c15,510$6,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,769.7762951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Penguins43c13,377$5,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,762.9132744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning55c13,185$7,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,883.681,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Lightning55c12,107$6,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,448.3432946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Penguins44c11,540$5,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,088.66958%40 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Penguins43c11,103$4,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,722.582,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penguins43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.91,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Lightning56c9,601$5,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,224.4433243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Penguins43c9,050$3,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,891.524654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lightning57c7,714$4,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,316.9461748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Lightning55c7,224$3,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,235.0938738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Penguins43c7,000$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,01033345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x419b…0944backed Penguins45c6,709$3,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,018.952250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Penguins44c6,500$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,859.961,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Penguins43c6,273$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7208134.6%28 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Penguins44c5,755$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.195735.1%20 W · 37 L-13.5wins-0.24per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Penguins44c5,565$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,448.394841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins44c5,532$2,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,458.41,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Penguins43c5,122$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.1533151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Penguins43c5,095$2,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,198.351,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Penguins44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2008650%43 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Penguins44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.9912245.9%56 W · 66 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Lightning57c4,846$2,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.616157.4%35 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning56c4,750$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0901,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82b7…cc32backed Lightning57c4,587$2,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,972.416443.8%28 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Penguins44c4,545$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Penguins43c4,500$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.389636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Penguins43c4,433$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90651452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Penguins44c3,861$1,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,690.0360337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Lightning64c3,683$2,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.761,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Penguins43c3,248$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.758450%42 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Lightning57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Lightning57c2,770$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.1828152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Penguins44c2,760$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.414848%71 W · 77 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Lightning58c2,586$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.2131550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Penguins44c2,561$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.7860249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Lightning60c2,506$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.783647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cea…03d4backed Penguins44c2,492$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.492642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning56c2,289$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.981,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Penguins44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Penguins43c2,100$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.4843548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Penguins44c2,000$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.3397651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Penguins43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.951,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Penguins43c1,977$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85047951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Lightning56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.8425555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Penguins45c1,751$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.3393953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Penguins44c1,724$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.0922852.6%120 W · 108 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Penguins43c1,705$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.1575155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Lightning56c1,700$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7481850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbb…851ebacked Penguins44c1,700$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Penguins43c1,684$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.2849045.3%222 W · 268 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Penguins43c1,650$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.7345749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Penguins44c1,424$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.5611243.8%49 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Penguins44c1,335$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.691,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Penguins1c1,333$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.337450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Lightning56c1,300$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57219645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eeb…fe8fbacked Lightning54c1,300$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ff…b00abacked Penguins43c1,284$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.122466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Penguins41c1,237$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.0883149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Penguins44c1,200$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52838046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc20…c5dbbacked Penguins45c1,158$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5211421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.4wins-0.32per pick53cpaid-66.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Penguins44c1,140$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.644551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Penguins45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Penguins43c1,110$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.3812941.9%54 W · 75 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Penguins44c1,109$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.9675251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9426…8253backed Penguins44c1,100$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4841050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…9cddbacked Penguins44c1,100$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.991650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Penguins1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Penguins44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44054047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Lightning56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44054349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Penguins42c961.87$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.9911745.3%53 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Lightning52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.5414142.6%60 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4a6…6d23backed Penguins44c904.98$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.1928853.1%153 W · 135 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb870…bfbdbacked Lightning56c850$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3741353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cf0…fa27backed Lightning56c850$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3742065%13 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x765c…0779backed Penguins43c839.99$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.440049.3%197 W · 203 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Lightning59c816.45$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.3120951.7%108 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ee…7699backed Penguins44c800$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d39…8fdebacked Penguins44c799.99$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Lightning57c798.21$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.7917057.1%97 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Penguins44c750$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4184…d16cbacked Lightning57c724.51$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.541225%3 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-58.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9995…6c06backed Penguins44c718.43$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.112015%3 W · 17 L-6.3wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-70.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xe067…ec36backed Penguins44c716.27$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.161250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Penguins45c716$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.213147.3%62 W · 69 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Penguins44c716$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.042142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Penguins42c714.86$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.982,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3a…f084backed Lightning57c712.12$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.211241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04e7…4674backed Penguins44c708.55$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.761540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dac…11bfbacked Lightning57c702.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3021275%9 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69d9…9881backed Lightning57c701.75$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.7530657.8%177 W · 129 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd622…8b56backed Penguins43c695.96$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2610846.3%50 W · 58 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1243…2a64backed Lightning56c692.05$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.56149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.