NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Penguins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeed586854348252f3e4fc892e7fcd587cf8e2624b04df05c15faa43f745f4eee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $382,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $394,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 418 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning | 57c | 99,551$56,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,008.35 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Lightning | 56c | 42,382$23,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,647.98 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Penguins | 43c | 30,000$12,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,899.82 | 309 | 44.7%138 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Penguins | 44c | 27,645$12,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,163.78 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…dc35backed Penguins | 43c | 27,158$11,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,709.59 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Lightning | 57c | 24,196$13,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,504.46 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Lightning | 57c | 21,127$12,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,084.46 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Penguins | 44c | 15,510$6,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,769.77 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…80aebacked Penguins | 43c | 13,377$5,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,762.91 | 327 | 44%144 W · 183 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 55c | 13,185$7,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,883.68 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Lightning | 55c | 12,107$6,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,448.34 | 329 | 46.8%154 W · 175 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb3…d38ebacked Penguins | 44c | 11,540$5,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,088.6 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Penguins | 43c | 11,103$4,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,722.58 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penguins | 43c | 10,000$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,299.9 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Lightning | 56c | 9,601$5,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,224.44 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Penguins | 43c | 9,050$3,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,891.5 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Lightning | 57c | 7,714$4,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,316.94 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Lightning | 55c | 7,224$3,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,235.09 | 387 | 38%147 W · 240 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Penguins | 43c | 7,000$3,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,010 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…0944backed Penguins | 45c | 6,709$3,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,018.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Penguins | 44c | 6,500$2,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,859.96 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Penguins | 43c | 6,273$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…df78backed Penguins | 44c | 5,755$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,532.19 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -13.5wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Penguins | 44c | 5,565$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448.39 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins | 44c | 5,532$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,458.4 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Penguins | 43c | 5,122$2,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.15 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Penguins | 43c | 5,095$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.35 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Penguins | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Penguins | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Lightning | 57c | 4,846$2,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,059.61 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning | 56c | 4,750$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b7…cc32backed Lightning | 57c | 4,587$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.41 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Penguins | 44c | 4,545$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Penguins | 43c | 4,500$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.3 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Penguins | 43c | 4,433$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Penguins | 44c | 3,861$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.03 | 603 | 37.5%226 W · 377 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Lightning | 64c | 3,683$2,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.76 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Penguins | 43c | 3,248$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.75 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Lightning | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Lightning | 57c | 2,770$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.18 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Penguins | 44c | 2,760$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.4 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Lightning | 58c | 2,586$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.21 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Penguins | 44c | 2,561$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.78 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Lightning | 60c | 2,506$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Penguins | 44c | 2,492$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.49 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 56c | 2,289$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.98 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Penguins | 44c | 2,273$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Penguins | 43c | 2,100$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.48 | 435 | 48.5%211 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Penguins | 44c | 2,000$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.33 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Penguins | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.95 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Penguins | 43c | 1,977$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…a7fabacked Lightning | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.84 | 255 | 55.3%141 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Penguins | 45c | 1,751$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.33 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…1fe8backed Penguins | 44c | 1,724$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.09 | 228 | 52.6%120 W · 108 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Penguins | 43c | 1,705$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.15 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Lightning | 56c | 1,700$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…851ebacked Penguins | 44c | 1,700$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Penguins | 43c | 1,684$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.28 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Penguins | 43c | 1,650$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.73 | 457 | 49.2%225 W · 232 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Penguins | 44c | 1,424$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.56 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Penguins | 44c | 1,335$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.69 | 1,354 | 52.6%712 W · 642 L | +46.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Penguins | 1c | 1,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Lightning | 56c | 1,300$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eeb…fe8fbacked Lightning | 54c | 1,300$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Penguins | 43c | 1,284$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.12 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Penguins | 41c | 1,237$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.08 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Penguins | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Penguins | 45c | 1,158$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.32per pick | 53cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Penguins | 44c | 1,140$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.6 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Penguins | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Penguins | 43c | 1,110$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.38 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Penguins | 44c | 1,109$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.96 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9426…8253backed Penguins | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…9cddbacked Penguins | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Penguins | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed Penguins | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 540 | 47.6%257 W · 283 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Lightning | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Penguins | 42c | 961.87$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.99 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Lightning | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a6…6d23backed Penguins | 44c | 904.98$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.19 | 288 | 53.1%153 W · 135 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…bfbdbacked Lightning | 56c | 850$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf0…fa27backed Lightning | 56c | 850$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765c…0779backed Penguins | 43c | 839.99$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.4 | 400 | 49.3%197 W · 203 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Lightning | 59c | 816.45$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.31 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ee…7699backed Penguins | 44c | 800$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…8fdebacked Penguins | 44c | 799.99$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Lightning | 57c | 798.21$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.79 | 170 | 57.1%97 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Penguins | 44c | 750$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…d16cbacked Lightning | 57c | 724.51$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…6c06backed Penguins | 44c | 718.43$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.11 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -6.3wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe067…ec36backed Penguins | 44c | 716.27$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Penguins | 45c | 716$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.2 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…b72abacked Penguins | 44c | 716$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penguins | 42c | 714.86$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.98 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…f084backed Lightning | 57c | 712.12$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…4674backed Penguins | 44c | 708.55$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dac…11bfbacked Lightning | 57c | 702.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…9881backed Lightning | 57c | 701.75$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.75 | 306 | 57.8%177 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Penguins | 43c | 695.96$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.26 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Lightning | 56c | 692.05$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.5 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Penguinsthis page
- Lightning vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.