NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x353953b5b408bb97efb94c2fd0e44404d3c8893f568c3f35c6790cf205f7b224
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1be4…47c3backed Over | 46c | 14,000$6,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,440 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e2…ab89backed Under | 54c | 14,000$7,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,440 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 54c | 11,987$6,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,513.81 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ae…3020backed Under | 56c | 11,080$6,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,891.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 5,703$2,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,509.48 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 5,109$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.12 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 4,781$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.26 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Over | 44c | 2,000$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 1,911$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.49 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 56c | 1,747$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.83 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 45c | 1,356$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.34 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…7a7fbacked Over | 46c | 1,117$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 56c | 886$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.84 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 45c | 373.04$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.87 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 358.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.12 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…fba6backed Over | 44c | 329.55$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…a815backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Over | 46c | 124.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…5d79backed Over | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…54e2backed Over | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 48cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 44c | 94.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 90.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Over | 46c | 69.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 45c | 46.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…dc35backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. PenguinsLightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.