NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4c167759caea8f3f4e3840f24a588dc6e682fcf91d2b8d539b1e61ddc88a53b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Lightning, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Penguins | 65c | 4,244$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.16 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Lightning | 35c | 2,100$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Penguins | 66c | 1,254$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.26 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Lightning | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 34c | 700$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Penguins | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Penguins | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.99 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Lightning | 36c | 408.33$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Lightning | 36c | 390.84$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Penguins | 64c | 370.48$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.37 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Lightning | 36c | 306.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Lightning | 34c | 299.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Lightning | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 393 | 43%169 W · 224 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Lightning | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Lightning | 36c | 204.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Penguins | 64c | 193.48$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Lightning | 35c | 166.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Penguins | 36c | 130.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Lightning | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Penguins | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0be2backed Lightning | 36c | 102.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Lightning | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Lightning | 36c | 93.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Lightning | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Lightning | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Penguins | 64c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Penguins | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Penguins | 65c | 61.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d8…49b8backed Lightning | 34c | 58.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…69e4backed Lightning | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…45d9backed Lightning | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…7654backed Lightning | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e42…8f95backed Lightning | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…55e7backed Lightning | 72c | 48.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Lightning | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed Lightning | 71c | 42.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…019dbacked Lightning | 36c | 40.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Penguins | 65c | 38.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Penguins | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Penguins | 66c | 26.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Lightning | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa890…915fbacked Penguins | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Penguins | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Penguins | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 128 | 26.6%34 W · 94 L | -12.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. PenguinsLightning won
- Lightning vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.