TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Knicks, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,032,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,338,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,032,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Kings20c240,383$48,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191,861.4648343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Knicks80c152,102$121,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,308.6819560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Kings21c136,161$28,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,979.0660351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Kings20c104,136$20,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,308.4651844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Knicks79c89,071$70,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,365.9726753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Knicks80c67,721$53,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,999.212147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bd6…918ebacked Knicks3c65,769$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1006811.8%8 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Knicks80c65,190$52,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,999.981,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Kings20c50,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,999.927640.8%31 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x166a…e675backed Kings21c48,321$10,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,173.822839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffa5…0c23backed Knicks48c43,746$21,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,172.72966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+40.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Knicks4c43,255$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.441,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Knicks42c42,137$17,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,512.251,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Knicks80c40,705$32,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,484.9572450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Knicks3c36,208$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.7664517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Knicks1c36,022$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.465213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Knicks79c34,676$27,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,543.8419751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks79c30,687$24,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,272.439,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Knicks80c29,313$23,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,45017162.6%107 W · 64 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Knicks38c29,201$11,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,12310158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a79…a442backed Kings69c25,602$17,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,002.347062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x085d…5302backed Knicks0c25,080$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.085337.7%20 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Kings20c25,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,00014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Knicks80c25,000$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00015841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Kings20c25,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,00020551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Kings19c24,871$4,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,179.5547028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Knicks16c23,941$3,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,871.5729245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks80c22,473$17,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,897.484,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Kings44c22,188$9,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,320.250838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Knicks79c21,814$17,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,285.73959%23 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid+4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks22c20,679$4,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,508.334,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Knicks14c20,375$2,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,852.548352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Knicks79c20,200$16,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,008.5427424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Knicks80c20,101$16,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,080.847751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Kings66c20,000$13,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,80059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Kings67c20,000$13,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,599.974841.7%20 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Kings23c19,555$4,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,087.572,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks39c19,358$7,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,512.538,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Kings21c19,059$4,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,056.611,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks28c19,011$5,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,406.53,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Knicks46c18,552$8,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,522.4227865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Knicks80c18,041$14,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,433.192753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Knicks80c17,285$13,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,765.1661851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Knicks79c16,863$13,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,322.1637557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Kings19c15,423$2,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,492.2436741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Kings20c15,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,00048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x832d…d420backed Kings37c15,000$5,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,431.986540%26 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Kings20c15,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,00037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Knicks18c15,000$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6601,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Knicks5c14,244$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.711,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Knicks80c13,043$10,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,434.2271547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Kings46c12,580$5,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,846.348845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd009…a1adbacked Kings20c12,113$2,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,690.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+118.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Knicks36c11,616$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,200.4810255.9%57 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Knicks49c11,486$5,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,657.825749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked Knicks80c11,405$9,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,1242944.8%13 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-30.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6eb4…96b0backed Kings20c11,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,8003262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+40.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kings69c10,580$7,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,264.051,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Knicks32c10,434$3,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,378.6323052.6%121 W · 109 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a7…5314backed Knicks44c10,237$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Kings20c10,168$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,093.071,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8758…add7backed Kings19c10,100$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,1801233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Kings20c10,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,00032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Kings20c10,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,00031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…8833backed Knicks33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3001921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Kings20c10,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,999.98742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Knicks44c9,653$4,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,222.65,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Knicks79c9,604$7,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,611.582,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Knicks49c9,430$4,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,576.762,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Knicks79c9,299$7,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,346.1335450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Knicks9c9,098$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.6583039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Knicks80c9,038$7,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,23010930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Knicks80c8,652$6,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,921.816370.6%115 W · 48 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Knicks80c8,596$6,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,860.8630947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Knicks1c8,558$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.581,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x282c…0313backed Kings60c8,537$5,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,414.67850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab44…d88ebacked Kings20c8,367$1,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,689.678030%24 W · 56 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26a6…ff11backed Kings62c7,974$4,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,055.745166.7%34 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0720…b1aebacked Knicks80c7,959$6,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,367.220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Knicks80c7,064$5,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,628.9236950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Knicks25c6,846$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,736.872,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Knicks80c6,841$5,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,472.6430845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Knicks80c6,757$5,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,405.65655.4%31 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf267…e0e1backed Kings26c6,643$1,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,929.06944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9b…6611backed Kings37c6,492$2,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,089.892240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c0…427bbacked Kings21c6,429$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,088.0718446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks35c5,878$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,082.343,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89da…a6c2backed Knicks5c5,812$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.911034.9%5 W · 98 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Knicks79c5,732$4,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,533.552,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa5…3d34backed Kings21c5,515$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,359.487537.3%28 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Knicks33c5,106$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.824252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Knicks80c5,020$4,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,01618954.5%103 W · 86 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Knicks0c5,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Kings20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00015435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Kings20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00021723.5%51 W · 166 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+75.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Kings20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00032039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Kings51c4,903$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,402.638846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Knicks79c4,866$3,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,844.861,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0540…98ebbacked Knicks5c4,831$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.371723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-62.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9333…3fa5backed Kings46c4,820$2,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.671855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.