Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 148.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa02876b13a017745e185d998303073fa71801cc3a77518149588bea11c0722a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $489,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $488,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $489,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 62c | 434,352$269,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165,057.75 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 38c | 400,000$152,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152,000 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 38c | 50,000$19,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,000 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 62c | 15,840$9,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,019.25 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 54c | 13,101$7,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,004.1 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 9,838$4,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,594.68 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 52c | 9,558$4,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,587.68 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 6,708$3,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,192.61 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Under | 55c | 6,500$3,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,574.99 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 51c | 4,263$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,089 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 47c | 3,189$1,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 48c | 2,224$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.52 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 45c | 1,475$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.43 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…88fdbacked Over | 62c | 1,195$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.1 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under | 38c | 1,012$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.37 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 45c | 800$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 132 | 47%62 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 767.21$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.55 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 51c | 718.37$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.37 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Under | 46c | 438.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 402$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.95 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Over | 45c | 315.56$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.56 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…fd9dbacked Over | 45c | 315.56$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.56 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Over | 63c | 311.77$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -9.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 48c | 308.03$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.85 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | +14.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1c…9b07backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 53c | 189.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.35 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 42c | 188$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 55c | 173$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Over | 61c | 157.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 41c | 147$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 40c | 139.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 10c | 128.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 323 | 43%139 W · 184 L | -18.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 84.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e19…9bdfbacked Under | 39c | 75.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 40c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…2065backed Under | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Under | 38c | 62.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Under | 51c | 30.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 48c | 26.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Under | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 316 | 66.1%209 W · 107 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 148.5this page
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. New Mexico LobosNew Mexico Lobos won
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 147.5Over won
- Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-13.5)Fresno State Bulldogs won
- Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-14.5)Fresno State Bulldogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.