Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33b6bbed2f612c84c630e9012bc5590940bd82cc51fb1ae049d210df74abd67b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno State Bulldogsof New Mexico Lobos, Fresno State Bulldogs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $421,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $422,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed New Mexico Lobos | 54c | 374,167$202,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202,039.07 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 46c | 300,000$138,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162,000 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 46c | 61,260$28,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,080.39 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…dc5bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 55c | 18,178$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,177.98 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked New Mexico Lobos | 42c | 7,424$3,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,137.43 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New Mexico Lobos | 50c | 7,154$3,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,545.39 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 3,062$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.33 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 47c | 2,370$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed New Mexico Lobos | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New Mexico Lobos | 46c | 1,126$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.37 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed New Mexico Lobos | 49c | 1,040$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.3 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked New Mexico Lobos | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked New Mexico Lobos | 49c | 925.88$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.68 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | +14.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe975…9d22backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 866.67$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.67 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed New Mexico Lobos | 53c | 700$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed New Mexico Lobos | 54c | 618.04$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked New Mexico Lobos | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 44c | 450$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.16 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…00b3backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 48c | 430.16$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.68 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked New Mexico Lobos | 54c | 395.65$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.61 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 304.17$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.17 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0f…f3e6backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 46c | 299.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.84 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed New Mexico Lobos | 53c | 169.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed New Mexico Lobos | 51c | 164.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…277ebacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ea…066ebacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…380cbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 100.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 51c | 98.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked New Mexico Lobos | 50c | 79.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | -13.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…22c3backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe0…323bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 48c | 56.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 48.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…3751backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 47c | 46.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…7f09backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 41.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf300…ca70backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 47c | 34.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…b6d1backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 47c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…a994backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +34%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…72e3backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 29.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…901bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 28.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…a77bbacked Fresno State Bulldogs | 49c | 21.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 21.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…5822backed Fresno State Bulldogs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked New Mexico Lobos | 74c | 19.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-14.5)this page
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. New Mexico LobosNew Mexico Lobos won
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 147.5Over won
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. New Mexico Lobos: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: New Mexico Lobos (-13.5)Fresno State Bulldogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.