TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

BNP Paribas Open, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Yue Yuan

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dalma Galfiof Dalma Galfi, Yue Yuan
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,769
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,246

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,769 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde9f…d43cbacked Dalma Galfi62c9,697$6,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,683.956,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Dalma Galfi46c8,000$3,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,301.2829146%134 W · 157 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Yue Yuan28c7,545$2,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,138.252,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Dalma Galfi44c5,237$2,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.11,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked Yue Yuan34c4,763$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,61213439.6%53 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Yue Yuan36c4,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44022553.8%121 W · 104 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Yue Yuan24c3,957$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.872,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Yue Yuan54c3,509$1,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.8943051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Dalma Galfi43c3,485$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.541,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Yue Yuan14c3,287$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.331,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b70…3102backed Yue Yuan34c3,273$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.652532%8 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-41.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yue Yuan5c2,930$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.912,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7db…ee3ebacked Yue Yuan57c2,813$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,603.581957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Dalma Galfi54c2,650$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.1841645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Dalma Galfi67c2,558$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.781349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f70…9f21backed Dalma Galfi72c2,500$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7002462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab9…5b82backed Yue Yuan22c2,040$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.759135.2%32 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6757…7ecebacked Yue Yuan57c1,925$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.253537.1%13 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Dalma Galfi44c1,635$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.631,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79dc…b1a9backed Yue Yuan27c1,578$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4253743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Yue Yuan56c1,511$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.3248552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Yue Yuan51c1,239$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.6637342.6%159 W · 214 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Yue Yuan53c1,200$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63640744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Dalma Galfi65c1,196$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.3244038.4%169 W · 271 L-27.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Yue Yuan57c1,148$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.318053.8%43 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Yue Yuan35c1,143$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40063247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Yue Yuan55c1,091$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.39per pick55cpaid-67.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5fd…c68abacked Dalma Galfi69c1,016$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.971060%6 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x795f…fbdabacked Yue Yuan36c1,015$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.3511417.5%20 W · 94 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44e5…3c33backed Yue Yuan37c977.18$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.561963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Yue Yuan40c966.41$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38527935.8%100 W · 179 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Yue Yuan51c923$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.3234744.4%154 W · 193 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Yue Yuan37c840$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.816648.8%81 W · 85 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Yue Yuan56c768$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.3873745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Dalma Galfi71c750.42$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.6238652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Yue Yuan56c739$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.3599044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Yue Yuan51c692$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.9297046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3032…9b05backed Yue Yuan27c684.96$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1836934.8%24 W · 45 L-9.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yue Yuan50c669$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.631,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Yue Yuan30c666.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004860.4%29 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Yue Yuan53c631.72$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.8165849.4%325 W · 333 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked Yue Yuan57c629.91$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.2424852%129 W · 119 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f6d…fa35backed Yue Yuan54c615.59$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.421070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Yue Yuan27c565$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.822,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cee…3f91backed Yue Yuan38c552.63$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2109824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Yue Yuan28c536.96$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3551933.1%172 W · 347 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Yue Yuan49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24546553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yue Yuan33c493.29$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.83,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64bb…183dbacked Yue Yuan30c473.53$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.06520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Dalma Galfi43c447.99$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.3587251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Dalma Galfi43c444$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.0822344.8%100 W · 123 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb6a…dd64backed Dalma Galfi76c435.91$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.911163.6%7 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick73cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Dalma Galfi43c416.17$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.427,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Dalma Galfi43c414.64$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.671,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Dalma Galfi73c410.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9636968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Dalma Galfi48c399.99$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21046932%150 W · 319 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x751b…90fbbacked Dalma Galfi71c382.81$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8120758%120 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf48a…3594backed Yue Yuan55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Yue Yuan55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20052460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc63d…a59bbacked Yue Yuan43c354.85$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.033836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd205…e7fbbacked Yue Yuan29c350$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.531039.4%122 W · 188 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf95a…d895backed Yue Yuan29c348.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018932.3%61 W · 128 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Yue Yuan30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Yue Yuan55c327.27$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18043448.4%210 W · 224 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Yue Yuan40c325.67$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.682,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Dalma Galfi44c300.79$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.4475262%466 W · 286 L+25.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked Yue Yuan38c264.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064537.2%240 W · 405 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Dalma Galfi43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.54,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Dalma Galfi44c227.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5373350.9%373 W · 360 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb9…6da4backed Dalma Galfi73c223$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.213375.8%25 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Yue Yuan54c217.39$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3942046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Dalma Galfi73c205.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4884963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Dalma Galfi44c205$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6586835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Yue Yuan63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12660943.3%264 W · 345 L-24.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Dalma Galfi78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4477967.8%528 W · 251 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4720…007bbacked Yue Yuan34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689250%46 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed Yue Yuan53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10625546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa924…b1b9backed Yue Yuan6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213923.7%33 W · 106 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e73…119dbacked Yue Yuan29c196.38$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef71…898bbacked Yue Yuan23c195$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.853050%15 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Yue Yuan29c191.34$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4968026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda22…6d2abacked Yue Yuan26c190.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5035344.8%158 W · 195 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x766a…d805backed Yue Yuan53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x198c…6a94backed Yue Yuan55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013563%85 W · 50 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Yue Yuan57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009958.6%58 W · 41 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Dalma Galfi44c164.68$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.221,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yue Yuan30c162.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3629533.6%99 W · 196 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1621…572cbacked Dalma Galfi78c161.65$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5647252.1%246 W · 226 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yue Yuan32c157.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.12,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bf9…be26backed Dalma Galfi72c154.14$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1643062.3%268 W · 162 L-0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Dalma Galfi43c153.22$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.331,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0339…1394backed Dalma Galfi47c153.19$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.194540%18 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Dalma Galfi65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.524060.8%146 W · 94 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430b…6e64backed Yue Yuan35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020447.5%97 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Dalma Galfi35c141.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.6731643%136 W · 180 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Dalma Galfi47c141.38$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9378152.8%412 W · 369 L+21.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Dalma Galfi72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8950364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeac2…6deebacked Dalma Galfi64c125$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Yue Yuan40c122.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.22152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Yue Yuan28c122.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.943,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.