Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Rei Sakamoto vs Colton Smith
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27b9b41cbf6bd8db5184620f83ac3bafa9a4c5d691cfa0c7aa9b2f0b2d9125eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sakamotoof Sakamoto, Smith
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Smith | 47c | 7,994$3,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,749.35 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sakamoto | 66c | 2,543$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.4 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Smith | 29c | 1,274$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.21 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sakamoto | 54c | 1,119$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.4 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Sakamoto | 53c | 995$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.65 | 781 | 52.8%412 W · 369 L | +21.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Sakamoto | 53c | 703.77$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.77 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Sakamoto | 53c | 686.65$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.73 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Sakamoto | 53c | 552$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.44 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Sakamoto | 53c | 513.61$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.4 | 809 | 38.8%314 W · 495 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Sakamoto | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Smith | 20c | 492.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sakamoto | 75c | 484.69$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.73 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Sakamoto | 53c | 433.96$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.96 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Sakamoto | 56c | 357.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.18 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Smith | 45c | 354.82$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.67 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Sakamoto | 58c | 347.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.31 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Sakamoto | 54c | 261.47$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.09 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…b807backed Smith | 47c | 191.82$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Sakamoto | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 407 | 44%179 W · 228 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Sakamoto | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sakamoto | 61c | 178.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Smith | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Smith | 45c | 149.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Sakamoto | 74c | 148.08$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Smith | 25c | 146.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Smith | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Smith | 19c | 96.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Sakamoto | 74c | 92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Smith | 23c | 85.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Smith | 25c | 77.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Smith | 23c | 77.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Sakamoto | 75c | 65.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked Sakamoto | 79c | 51.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Sakamoto | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Smith | 42c | 43.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Sakamoto | 76c | 39.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…ecb3backed Sakamoto | 79c | 25.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Sakamoto | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.