Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Petra Marcinko vs Tatjana Maria
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95730df9aa9986179bf97f12f18cf4588ae208f39b3b68735017be2e206d7de8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marcinkoof Marcinko, Maria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Marcinko | 78c | 8,450$6,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.88 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed Maria | 30c | 6,996$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,065.38 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maria | 17c | 5,945$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.31 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…409dbacked Maria | 35c | 2,907$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Marcinko | 72c | 2,851$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.62 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maria | 8c | 1,427$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Maria | 33c | 1,402$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.53 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Maria | 28c | 1,177$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.88 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Marcinko | 69c | 806.59$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Maria | 22c | 722.73$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marcinko | 65c | 659.81$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.79 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Marcinko | 65c | 646$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.1 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Marcinko | 79c | 642.55$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.24 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Marcinko | 64c | 590$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.2 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Marcinko | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Marcinko | 66c | 329.68$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Maria | 6c | 323.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Maria | 30c | 316.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Maria | 7c | 299.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17bf…5a53backed Maria | 19c | 287.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Maria | 28c | 174$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Maria | 14c | 156.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…584dbacked Marcinko | 68c | 144.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Maria | 10c | 122.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Maria | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Marcinko | 75c | 90.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Maria | 20c | 90.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Marcinko | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Marcinko | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Maria | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Marcinko | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…f845backed Marcinko | 74c | 27.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Marcinko | 69c | 27.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Marcinko | 74c | 20.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed Marcinko | 72c | 18.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Marcinko | 75c | 15.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602a…5ab7backed Marcinko | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Petra Marcinko vs Tatjana Mariathis page
- Marcinko vs. Maria: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Marcinko vs. Maria: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Marcinko vs. Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Marcinko vs MariaMarcinko won
- Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5)Marcinko won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.