Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 184.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50c0388665df3a87c440affba00b05ff5b262997a8d6138b8e61817f1db71fcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 17,409$9,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,109.12 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 50c | 9,037$4,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,518.32 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 49c | 7,627$3,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,898.2 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 50c | 2,939$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.5 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 50c | 2,757$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.82 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9931…ea8cbacked Over | 47c | 2,495$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.31 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 46c | 2,030$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.2 | 262 | 54.2%142 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Over | 50c | 2,017$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.33 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 1,003$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.82 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 49c | 760$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.09 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 48c | 727.2$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.14 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 50c | 610$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 115 | 60%69 W · 46 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 55c | 422.94$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.32 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 51c | 396$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Over | 51c | 335.29$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.29 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 305.03$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.84 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 59c | 245.38$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 55c | 220$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87d…9906backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Under | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91f…80fabacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 99.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b0…4b50backed Under | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Under | 23c | 89.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 47c | 66.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…9792backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 270 | 55.6%150 W · 120 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 56c | 44.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5f…45b8backed Under | 51c | 41.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…3efdbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 49c | 39.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Over | 48c | 36.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 65c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…11ffbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 184.5this page
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson TideAlabama Crimson Tide won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 182.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 183.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 185.5Over won
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-4.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.