Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49d8b04c57091cdb676afa2de8461ee904369a35d27cd08004ad4e4d4573a3cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Razorbacksof Alabama Crimson Tide, Arkansas Razorbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x617b…a499backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 14,256$7,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,094.48 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 48c | 10,246$4,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,950.61 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 49c | 10,000$4,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,910 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8873…09fcbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 6,617$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,117.27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 49c | 4,586$2,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,235.69 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb44f…8c20backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 3,113$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.5 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 2,504$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.92 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 50c | 2,000$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.48 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 53c | 1,892$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.93 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 48c | 1,032$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.06 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 651.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.99 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fd…2b74backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 51c | 613.98$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 47c | 552$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.17 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 49c | 428.57$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 51c | 321.16$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.79 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 47c | 215$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 48c | 208$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 49c | 207$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…8823backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 184.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 46c | 140.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89fd…da5dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 54c | 104.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 45c | 87.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 79.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 52c | 51.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 47c | 31.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 48c | 29.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-4.5)this page
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson TideAlabama Crimson Tide won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 182.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 183.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 184.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 185.5Over won
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.