TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Arkansas Razorbacksof Alabama Crimson Tide, Arkansas Razorbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,512
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,512 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c2b…2575backed Alabama Crimson Tide55c35,000$19,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,25060949.8%303 W · 306 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c21,900$9,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,991.5389850%449 W · 449 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks45c11,050$4,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,072.0412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Alabama Crimson Tide54c10,331$5,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,578.7230249.3%149 W · 153 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c9,400$4,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,117.841,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Alabama Crimson Tide53c7,455$3,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,951.1310648.1%51 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c7,174$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,873.9115748.4%76 W · 81 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Alabama Crimson Tide55c7,000$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,849.9918548.6%90 W · 95 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Arkansas Razorbacks46c5,023$2,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.211,15550.4%582 W · 573 L-34.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c4,674$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,523.9374152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c3,330$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.3492246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Alabama Crimson Tide54c2,778$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50025556.1%143 W · 112 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Alabama Crimson Tide55c2,727$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50035147.6%167 W · 184 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c2,605$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.9527755.2%153 W · 124 L+19.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Alabama Crimson Tide54c800$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43255749.2%274 W · 283 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c651.94$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.055,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Alabama Crimson Tide25c640.44$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.241,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Alabama Crimson Tide55c611.6$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.427048.6%34 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27516147.2%76 W · 85 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Alabama Crimson Tide54c479.39$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Arkansas Razorbacks46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.781,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b1a…68d8backed Alabama Crimson Tide54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21611957.1%68 W · 51 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c378.6$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.2374649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks47c260$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.811046.4%51 W · 59 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Arkansas Razorbacks47c236.17$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.178432.1%27 W · 57 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks44c227.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.264,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe379…377cbacked Alabama Crimson Tide56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae79…0a6cbacked Alabama Crimson Tide54c167.8$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c155.56$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.569945.5%45 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Alabama Crimson Tide55c150$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.57042.9%30 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Alabama Crimson Tide55c150$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.51,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b23…cad2backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c133.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.333141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks47c130$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.920452.9%108 W · 96 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3883350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf60d…761abacked Alabama Crimson Tide55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552544%11 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Arkansas Razorbacks43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.863,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Arkansas Razorbacks45c81.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.924,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks45c67.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.512,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1e…5a2abacked Alabama Crimson Tide54c67.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.214247.6%20 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-20.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Alabama Crimson Tide55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3323363.9%149 W · 84 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c3…9792backed Alabama Crimson Tide52c59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6827055.6%150 W · 120 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Alabama Crimson Tide56c56.91$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.744763.8%30 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee5e…7f1cbacked Alabama Crimson Tide56c53.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.682142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Arkansas Razorbacks43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.553635.6%191 W · 345 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x106d…ccefbacked Arkansas Razorbacks45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.443844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Arkansas Razorbacks47c44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3299848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked Alabama Crimson Tide56c43.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5915252.6%80 W · 72 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d94…e7f7backed Alabama Crimson Tide54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f40…361abacked Alabama Crimson Tide55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Alabama Crimson Tide56c35.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204037.5%15 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Alabama Crimson Tide53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.930746.3%142 W · 165 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170f…790bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c27.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.671989.5%17 W · 2 L+6.8wins+0.36per pick54cpaid+68.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2442…0c2bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks43c26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7614051.4%72 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Alabama Crimson Tide55c23.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2312054.2%65 W · 55 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.