Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cfd2279faf5ce2879e0ea12a9675b1f517de83d8925bc12407d1ba55a7e5e81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas Razorbacksof Alabama Crimson Tide, Arkansas Razorbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 55c | 35,000$19,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,250 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 21,900$9,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,991.53 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 11,050$4,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,072.04 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 54c | 10,331$5,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,578.72 | 302 | 49.3%149 W · 153 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 9,400$4,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,117.84 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 53c | 7,455$3,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,951.13 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 7,174$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,873.91 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 55c | 7,000$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,849.99 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 5,023$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,708.21 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 4,674$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,523.93 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 3,330$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.34 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 54c | 2,778$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 55c | 2,727$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 2,605$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.95 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 651.94$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.05 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 25c | 640.44$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.24 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…83b9backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 55c | 611.6$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.42 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…ee81backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 54c | 479.39$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…68d8backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 378.6$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.23 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 260$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 236.17$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.17 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 44c | 227.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…377cbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…0a6cbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 54c | 167.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…cad2backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…761abacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 81.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 67.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 54c | 67.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…9792backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 52c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 270 | 55.6%150 W · 120 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 56c | 56.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 56c | 53.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…ccefbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 56c | 43.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…e7f7backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…361abacked Alabama Crimson Tide | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 56c | 35.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…790bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +6.8wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 43c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Alabama Crimson Tide | 55c | 23.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5)this page
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson TideAlabama Crimson Tide won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 182.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 183.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 184.5Over won
- Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 185.5Over won
- Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-4.5)Arkansas Razorbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.