TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
California Golden Bearsof UIC Flames, California Golden Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$230,973

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $230,973 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe790…eadcbacked California Golden Bears68c16,013$10,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,098.7318954.5%103 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3817…7d10backed UIC Flames30c13,242$3,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,972.4929845.3%135 W · 163 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5b…8e29backed California Golden Bears70c13,188$9,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,963.41450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed UIC Flames1c12,465$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.231,07443.3%465 W · 609 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed UIC Flames29c7,873$2,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,321.695,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3e2f…aaf8backed California Golden Bears63c6,945$4,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.891258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked UIC Flames35c6,803$2,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,377.7349345.4%224 W · 269 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b4…7730backed UIC Flames13c6,391$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.01478.5%4 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed UIC Flames30c5,650$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6952,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed California Golden Bears71c5,388$3,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.581,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked California Golden Bears72c3,868$2,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.141,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed UIC Flames30c3,813$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.7546446.8%217 W · 247 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked UIC Flames30c3,704$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.365,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0f…cef3backed California Golden Bears64c3,443$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe509…4245backed UIC Flames35c2,579$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.35850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked California Golden Bears74c2,533$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.184,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6757…7ecebacked California Golden Bears69c2,520$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.143056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed UIC Flames46c1,999$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.0821636.1%78 W · 138 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked California Golden Bears71c1,935$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.491,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1030…3e3abacked California Golden Bears76c1,693$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.06683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf7…737ebacked California Golden Bears72c1,594$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.387100%7 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed UIC Flames13c1,417$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.2760%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked UIC Flames27c1,275$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.61,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked UIC Flames27c1,255$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.044,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked California Golden Bears80c1,234$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.72633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed UIC Flames35c1,230$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.596440.6%26 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked California Golden Bears68c1,224$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.152,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked California Golden Bears70c1,115$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.992,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed UIC Flames31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31021549.3%106 W · 109 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed UIC Flames36c991.94$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.110451%53 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed UIC Flames39c954.13$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.613,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked UIC Flames29c900$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25755532.8%182 W · 373 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed UIC Flames19c877.56$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.533,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed UIC Flames17c877.26$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2652843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8a2…c111backed UIC Flames6c874.02$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed California Golden Bears71c850.37$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.61955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed UIC Flames13c806.65$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8581528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked UIC Flames34c785.41$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.4712,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked California Golden Bears71c694.96$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.5437142.6%158 W · 213 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed UIC Flames12c683.14$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8318548.6%90 W · 95 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed California Golden Bears68c633.77$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.8112045.8%55 W · 65 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked California Golden Bears79c628.77$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.676852.9%36 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked California Golden Bears69c627.63$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.5639454.6%215 W · 179 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed UIC Flames31c623.17$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.0922250%111 W · 111 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x009b…e769backed UIC Flames33c601.37$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.457360.3%44 W · 29 L-0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked UIC Flames33c600$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19513043.8%57 W · 73 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd35d…a329backed UIC Flames10c588.14$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.813823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed UIC Flames21c569.18$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.5331646.8%148 W · 168 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed UIC Flames37c487.88$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.5215243.4%66 W · 86 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed UIC Flames25c483.42$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.544542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd2b…4090backed UIC Flames22c451.82$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed UIC Flames22c451.82$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.453635.6%191 W · 345 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed UIC Flames29c447.75$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8522043.2%95 W · 125 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked UIC Flames28c407.93$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1361446.1%283 W · 331 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked California Golden Bears60c400.18$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.74553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed California Golden Bears68c399.98$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.999866.3%65 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed California Golden Bears61c371.12$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.1119958.3%116 W · 83 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8bc2…7ed7backed California Golden Bears72c344.77$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.545759.6%34 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed UIC Flames47c316.37$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.696630.3%20 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2155…f351backed California Golden Bears66c300.65$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.222941.4%12 W · 17 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick59cpaid-34%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked California Golden Bears66c300.62$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.217871.8%56 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed UIC Flames31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9324432%78 W · 166 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked UIC Flames34c299.93$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.981,31733.6%443 W · 874 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81b0…6592backed UIC Flames34c290.88$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.91040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed California Golden Bears78c286.66$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.911,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5930…012bbacked UIC Flames35c283.19$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.12475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked California Golden Bears72c278.72$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.0474152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9fd…9dfabacked UIC Flames35c277.33$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.07450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c0f…87c5backed California Golden Bears53c275.36$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.422259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked UIC Flames35c267.49$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.311,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed California Golden Bears77c258.67$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7417062.9%107 W · 63 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed UIC Flames25c228.47$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.011,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed California Golden Bears70c222.6$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.763554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed California Golden Bears71c218.41$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3427358.6%160 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked UIC Flames26c210.13$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9543450%217 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c09…1253backed California Golden Bears80c208.85$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed California Golden Bears67c192.53$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5313565.9%89 W · 46 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked California Golden Bears64c187.33$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6745953.8%247 W · 212 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8393…4f91backed UIC Flames26c183.13$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.731811.1%2 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-79.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed UIC Flames29c168.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7329337.2%109 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d24…9c89backed California Golden Bears62c165.62$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.947354.8%40 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ad…bde6backed California Golden Bears72c165.49$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked California Golden Bears70c163.78$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.5730152.8%159 W · 142 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e79…54d2backed UIC Flames22c162.11$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked UIC Flames15c160.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1925829.5%76 W · 182 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed California Golden Bears66c150.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.112330.4%7 W · 16 L-6.1wins-0.26per pick57cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed UIC Flames20c148.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.77247.2%34 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7f…3223backed UIC Flames34c145.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.615052%26 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked UIC Flames32c143.34$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8730054%162 W · 138 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed UIC Flames29c140.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8825837.6%97 W · 161 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x068b…2106backed California Golden Bears80c131.88$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011c…f943backed UIC Flames22c131.21$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.872657.7%15 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a4b…286dbacked UIC Flames36c127.49$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked California Golden Bears69c125.01$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.757959.5%47 W · 32 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c1…7fbebacked UIC Flames40c123.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5815240.1%61 W · 91 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf91c…baa7backed California Golden Bears77c120.18$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.64757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked UIC Flames33c120$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.633445.8%153 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9735…8e3bbacked California Golden Bears64c120$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked UIC Flames30c115.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6726945.7%123 W · 146 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed4…c0a0backed California Golden Bears66c113.92$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.