Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: California Golden Bears (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae8459058160f54eadd1cdf55ceeaf422270a13486f777c3b12f132d49f29213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- California Golden Bearsof California Golden Bears, UIC Flames
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,695 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked California Golden Bears | 59c | 2,403$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.27 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California Golden Bears | 57c | 1,422$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.16 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked UIC Flames | 41c | 1,273$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.09 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked UIC Flames | 42c | 1,005$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.21 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed California Golden Bears | 55c | 901.52$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.85 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed UIC Flames | 44c | 864.86$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.99 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed UIC Flames | 42c | 620.44$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.59 | 220 | 43.2%95 W · 125 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed UIC Flames | 49c | 404.53$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.76 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed UIC Flames | 38c | 365.07$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.35 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked UIC Flames | 46c | 253.64$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed UIC Flames | 44c | 225.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed California Golden Bears | 57c | 198.75$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.01 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed California Golden Bears | 49c | 189.86$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked California Golden Bears | 57c | 150$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed UIC Flames | 50c | 128.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed California Golden Bears | 57c | 122.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 222 | 50%111 W · 111 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed UIC Flames | 37c | 101.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked California Golden Bears | 61c | 99.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked UIC Flames | 47c | 92.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed California Golden Bears | 62c | 84.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed UIC Flames | 50c | 79.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed UIC Flames | 43c | 65.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed UIC Flames | 43c | 60.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5a…a040backed UIC Flames | 23c | 55.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed UIC Flames | 56c | 53.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked UIC Flames | 22c | 47.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 318 | 37.7%120 W · 198 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…0022backed UIC Flames | 48c | 44.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked UIC Flames | 42c | 42.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed UIC Flames | 42c | 40.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed California Golden Bears | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked UIC Flames | 55c | 37.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked UIC Flames | 44c | 37.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…cf99backed UIC Flames | 41c | 35.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed California Golden Bears | 54c | 35.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed UIC Flames | 48c | 34.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…4f91backed UIC Flames | 44c | 30.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked California Golden Bears | 76c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: California Golden Bears (-4.5)this page
- Spread: California Golden Bears (-5.5)California Golden Bears won
- Spread: California Golden Bears (-6.5)California Golden Bears won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden BearsCalifornia Golden Bears won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 149.5Over won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 150.5Over won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 151.5Over won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 154.5Over won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 155.5Over won
- UIC Flames vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 156.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.